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I believe that regression to the mean is highly supported by observations and data when it comes to the children of recent immigrants. There are also other measures of HBD besides raw IQ, most obviously in the tendency towards aggression and violence.
Of course HBDers would probably still agree to this plan if it was an option on the table, but this discussion is heavily suppressed by the enemy. Real racists aren't HBDers and they believe that group differences are a downstream affect of their superiority, and not the central aspect. You'll hear about this narrative because the enemy needs to exaggerate the evil racist boogeyman.
HBD is a counter-ideology to the enemy's ideology that blames racism. Raising the salience of group differences is both a necessary precursor and the result of the spread of HBD ideology. Bringing in the facts to crush the enemy with facts and logic (/s) is a way to survive and immunize. Otherwise what other options are there to refute the enemy?
Trace suggested I preemptively address this but I couldn't take this argument seriously. The first problem is that it's explicitly moving the goalposts by conceding that a high IQ immigrant might be ok, but concern might still be warranted due to a hypothetical risk regarding their kids. The second problem is that the only method of properly estimating someone's "mean regression potential" (there might be a better word for this equilibrium) would be measuring a sufficient sample of their ancestors, which at just 3 generations (completely made up threshold) would mean data from 14 ancestors (2 parents + 4 grandparents + 8 great-grandparents) across 75-100 years. This is obviously impractical, but the further you stray from this the more you're on speculative ground. Simply assuming that "country of origin average" as a sufficient proxy for "mean regression potential" is definitely the most practical option, but it's still highly speculative and also flattens whatever variability may exist within a country's subpopulations or ethnic groups. The final problem is the number of hypotheticals this concern is predicated upon. "We should pre-emptively prohibit individuals who might have a low regression to the mean potential from immigrating because they might have kids who might have lower IQ which might also be lower than native average IQ" isn't very compelling.
@SwordOfOccam I admit I was caught off-guard by Walt's answer in the moment, but this was my genuine understanding of regression to the mean. I welcome your critique.
I've already addressed this in the post. It just doesn't make sense to say "gee I wish we could test for IQ directly but leftists are whining too much so I guess my only choice is to ban all immigration based on country averages oh darn". If the first option isn't available because of [reasons], neither would the second option!
It's not a hypothetical, but a real and proven phenomenon.
Why should we take anyone? You might say that the racist option is off the table, but you still haven't articulated any coherent argument why your proposal is a good thing, rather than a lesser evil. In the meantime it's an uneasy alliance between real racists and HBDers. Everyone in favor of restricting immigration at all for any reason is an ally against the enemy that promotes total unrestricted immigration.
To put it another way, if real racists got what they want in regards to immigration, HBDers should prefer it over the current situation. If HBDers get what they want, then real racists would prefer it over the current situation. At this point I'll take anything. Between gasolineing all of the illegals to instituting IQ tests, I'm on board with whatever option is available.
Nobody* is insisting on only a single approach. This is an obvious strawman.
Regression to the mean is undeniably real and conclusively proven, I'm not disputing that. It can happen as fast as within one generation but it's more reliably observed the more generations you sample. What I described as hypothetical was limited to 1) whether this immigrant was going to have any kids at all and 2) assuming they did, in which direction and at what magnitude would any regression take place in their kids. It's possible for children to have an IQ higher than their parents', lower but still higher than the national average, or lower than both their parent's and the average.
You don't have to take anyone. My proposal is only relevant for people who are against immigration because of low-IQ concerns. If you have other reasons to oppose immigration, then clearly my proposal is of no relevance.
It's only a strawman if I'm mischaracterizing someone's position. My criticism only applies to those whose position matches my description of "insists on a low-resolution filter when it has no conceivable benefits". If their position is different from what I have described, then clearly my criticism would not apply to them.
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I’m not sure myself whether the genetics of regression to the mean would matter if one was specifically selecting on high-potential individuals of any given race.
For instance, I’d rather select a 115 IQ/otherwise upstanding non-white citizen than some 100 IQ ne’er-do-well from say Norway. After all, you can have “good stock” and “bad breeding” within families of the same race and society. The white underclass is pretty shitty and I wouldn’t want to try enlarging it.
But that’s contingent on being selective.
Mostly, I got the feeling you didn’t know what regression to the mean could mean in the podcast, though I figured you had to know the concept and I would expect you had heard it used in this context before. I got a flash of the “per capita” insanity, but since I’m pretty familiar with your writing and we generally agree on things (not open borders, not sure what else) I was just surprised by it.
I think you have very good points against white nationalism, but in a “punching down” sort of way. There are smarter ones out there, like say Steve Sailer. To your credit, you are straightforward that you can’t pass an ITT, but you did kinda go full lawyer mode instead of letting Walter narrate sufficiently to explain the worldview he used to hold.
It strikes me as strange you can’t pass an IIT in that affinity for one’s kin and preference for similarity in appearance and belief is highly traditional. White nationalists tend to point out examples like Japan and Israel (the latter being more complicated) as their preferred type of country. This is extremely common in Europe too. Obviously, “whiteness” is hard to define in any robust way, but these types have a pretty strong “I know it when I see it” vibe, not strict logical definitions.
That’s my biggest complaint about the episode actually. The podcast would have been better with more structure, with the two-on-one dynamic especially. Honestly I’m impressed you all stayed really chill with how freewheeling it was.
Can you elaborate what you meant by "per capita" insanity? Given what I wrote above about regression to the mean, do you identify any deficiencies in my understanding of it? I'm more than happy to being corrected here. I've never heard of the regression argument before in response to the immigration topic so I was just surprised in the moment, but I'm also very much not immersed within the race & IQ rabbit hole.
I'll try to give a very brief synopsis on my approach here, but a full dissection will need a much longer effortpost. The reason why (if I had 6 hours to record) I would start with the question "how do you know who is white?" would be for exactly the same reasons I would ask, for example, a diehard believer that hot dogs are sandwiches "how do you know what is a sandwich?" So many common categories we regularly use are unconsciously accepted, and generally there's no reason to crisply demarcate their specific boundary lines because...who cares? Things change when the category itself is elevated as the central organizing focus. An answer from the hot dog guy would probably be "well I look at the food in question and I check to see if it has a central savory ingredient that is surrounded by two layers of bread" or whatever. Once the hot dog guy establishes his own boundaries for what food should be included in the venerated sandwich category, my next question would be "why is inclusion in the category important to you?"
Going one level up in complexity from sandwiches, I've observed an insanely high overlap regarding how white nationalists describe being white, and how transwomen describe being a woman. I would go through the same process, I'd want my interlocutors to explain in their own words how they determine how someone fits into a category that is clearly very important to them. Once they establish these boundaries themselves, the next phase of questioning would be to discern whether they care about the underlying traits or about achieving membership in a specific category. My overall thesis is that membership is sought out because of the background associations attached to the category. This is why for many transwomen it doesn't matter how much you compliment their outward expression or whatever, they'll still deem it a failure if they are not slotted into the 'woman' category.
I haven't figured out the best vocabulary to satisfyingly describe what I think is going, so bear with me. First, imagine a generic list of generally positive traits broadly associated with "woman" (caring, graceful, nurturing, beautiful, etc). Some of the dynamic I suspect is happening with the trans discourse is a sort of delusion that if someone succeeds in checking off enough superficial traits associated with "woman" (long hair, make-up, dress, high-pitched voice, etc) then that person also be successfully associated with the broader constellation. Something like "if I have long hair then people will slot me into the 'woman' category, and if I'm in that category then I'll also be beautiful by definition".
I suspect something similar is playing out with people's attachment to race. There are an infinite number of ways to slice "preference for similarity in appearance". It could include anything from hair style, hair color, cheekbone shape, neck length, gut size, toe nail shape, overall height, overall weight, beard length, etc etc. Picking one dimension and reifying it as the central organizational filter strikes me as arbitrary, but it makes sense if what people are after isn't the trait itself, but rather the formidable constellation of associations linked with the trait.
That's all terse given the subject matter, and not communicated in the most elegant manner. But let me know if any of the above makes any sense.
Per capita https://twitter.com/UsingLyft/status/1773872358421332266
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Simultaneously, I completely agree with your breakdown of “white” being difficult/impossible, but also I can totally understand what the white nationalists aspire to.
Oh man, I just assumed you knew about Twitter “per capita discourse.” I don’t even know where to start. How about fire alarms chirping?
At any rate, what you wrote here seems fine. It was just in the podcast where I was perplexed about your reaction.
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Per the recent podcast episode, I’m not sure he understands “regression to the mean.”
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That, I agree, is the important thing, and the emphasis on IQ is not helping the real problem we need to tackle: why are some groups apparently predisposed to being aggressive and violent? Stupid but law-abiding is better for the whole society than smart but criminal.
That is obviously the Latino versus black debate. It appears the IQ gaps are relative small but the criminality eventually seems to disappear in Hispanic populations but not black populations.
Not to blame it all on culture, but it honestly does have an effect if you're a population that has been seen as less capable to the dominant one. There's an awful strain persisting in Irish society of (1) lack of appreciation for built heritage, now ironically the chickens are coming home to roost because our tourism industry wants to find selling points but we've mostly trashed the Georgian and other heritage due to the 70s-90s building booms (2) what is called cute hoorism, where you look out for Number One, do down others, and generally don't give a damn about the common good.
A lot of that is due to the colonial past, where the best way to succeed was to play up to the Handy Andy stereotype of the broth of a boy, a bit dim, but brave and hardy, even if boastful and foolish. Of course, such people weren't fit to govern themselves, being in the same position as children, but that is why the superior Anglo-Saxon/British stock was placed by God over them as natural rulers.
While that flatters the vanity of the rulers, what it engenders in the ruled is a culture of being two-faced, of putting on a performance, of pretending to be (and maybe really being) dependent, incapable, and harmless. If you can't be held responsible, then you can't be blamed either, for drinking, fighting and stealing. It's corrosive to the national character to be liars, hypocrites, and thieves.
And I think a lot of that happened in African-American culture (the Stepin Fetchit caricature) and is made worse by being exploited, by white liberal guilt and black grifters; why not steal and rob, you're owed reparations? Why teach kids to 'act white' where that means 'don't be lazy and criminal'? The worst of "they can't help it, the poor things, it's their nature" and "we are owed for the wrongs done to our people" combining to make future generations worse than they need to be.
In that case, I don't much give a damn about relative IQ or is the average population score lower, I do care about "is misbehaviour being punished or is it being reinforced as 'our culture'?" If your height of ambition is to be a rapper or drug dealer, does it matter if you're a smart drug dealer or a stupid one? It's still bad all round for you, your community, and the future.
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