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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 1, 2024

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When I said 'defend allies without going on global adventures' I meant taking a stand to defend Taiwan if it were attacked as opposed to isolationism - that wasn't clear in my post though. However, the US has lots of troops all over the world, that huge base in Africa that was recently closed for example. They should cut down on non-defensive missions - Syria for instance.

I reckon it would be hard to evacuate the key Taiwanese workers in time, would you leave your family behind as hostages? What kind of message does that send to the lowly infantryman if the elites are fleeing before the war begins? The machinery would be wrecked but a lot of the brainpower might fall into Chinese hands. Furthermore, Taiwan is useful for submarine bases (the Yellow Sea is quite shallow) and it controls the sea routes leading to South Korea and Japan.

enough raw military materiél

Quite an important issue. If Chinese propaganda is to be believed, they've got factories that can produce 1000 cruise/anti-ship missiles per day. Well, they can produce 1000 electric cars per day so it seems mildly reasonable that they could - though they could also be lying and/or deceptive about what kind of missile they're making. When it comes to automation China is also quite strong - they install more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined.

The US does have an edge in ASI, maybe a decisive one. Demolishing the Nvidia/Google AI chip pipeline might be the only way China can catch up.

I reckon it would be hard to evacuate the key Taiwanese workers in time, would you leave your family behind as hostages? What kind of message does that send to the lowly infantryman if the elites are fleeing before the war begins? The machinery would be wrecked but a lot of the brainpower might fall into Chinese hands. Furthermore, Taiwan is useful for submarine bases (the Yellow Sea is quite shallow) and it controls the sea routes leading to South Korea and Japan.

I think that if it possible to perform an evacuation, it'll be done. That's leaving aside unlikely scenarios like chinese commandos storming the parliament or a container ship spilling out drones like a clown car. I expect that many Taiwanese politicians certainly hope to not have to stick around when the CCP invades, and skilled fab workers are much more valuable.

And it doesn't necessarily have to be public. Tragic, the fab caught fire, and half the employees are missing in the midst of a war, who can say who's responsible? I don't expect the US to salt the earth unless they feel compelled to, as in it's obvious China will win. Either way, the fabs won't survive.

Furthermore, Taiwan is useful for submarine bases (the Yellow Sea is quite shallow) and it controls the sea routes leading to South Korea and Japan.

That's rather minor isn't it? After all, there's a reason they're concerned about their neighbors only a few dozen kilometers away across the Formosan Strait. Knocking out Taiwan eliminates an adversary, but if China wants to mess with SK and Japan they don't need Taiwan to do so.

'defend allies without going on global adventures' I meant taking a stand to defend Taiwan if it were attacked as opposed to isolationism - that wasn't clear in my post though. However, the US has lots of troops all over the world, that huge base in Africa that was recently closed for example.

One of the reasons the US has bases all over the world is so it can quickly deploy forces in defense of allies. For example, the recently-closed based in Niger was helping the government of that country (and neighboring regions) defend against ISIS and Boko Haram. Bases in the Middle East can help defend KSA, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and UAE against Iran, Houthis, etc.. Base in Okinawa and the Philippines protect those countries from China. And so on. While I'm sympathetic to your broad view that the US has overestimated its strength and should be focused on protecting what it has, it's not clear to me that the material means of doing so are radically different. E.g., if a US ally in East Africa is attacked, the solution is sending a carrier group.