anarchonomicon.com
An Epic length essay of mine in which I lay out my theory of history and why briefly summarized: The Age of the nation state is almost certainly coming to an end under the corroding forces of decentralizing military technology and institutional decay.
The future will not resemble post French Revolution centralized governments asserting their control over each other, but rather will slowly come to resemble the Greek City states (misnomer) or the Holy roman empire's vast network of thousands of polities and war making entities.
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Notes -
I do think that Kulak is guilty of wishcasting, for lack of a better term. On the other hand, 2030 doesn't seem like a wildly implausible date, and I think balkanization seems like a reasonably likely outcome as well, though not nearly so likely as invasion by foreign powers invited in by one faction or another.
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