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I think that ascribes a level of strategic thinking to the Russian high command that has not been borne out by their actual achievements in Ukraine. Achievements which so far appear to be throwing away a generation of Russian men to achieve a bloody stalemate. Does anyone think that, as a counterfactual, if during Gulf War 2: Saddam's Boogaloo Russia and China had fed Saddam's government every possible armament and support they could that the US would have failed to conquer Iraq? The total time from the word "go" to the occupation of Baghdad was what, three weeks? Does anyone seriously think they could have made the US spend more than an extra week? Two? Russia has spent more than two years securing less than 20% of Ukraine's landmass. Meanwhile NATO has grown by two nations, the inclusion of Finland meaning that Russia's border with NATO has now grown by more than 800 miles and includes an entirely new front pointed directly at St. Petersburg, their second largest city.
If Russia's goals were (1) conquer Ukraine, and (2) crack NATO, then it would appear they have failed spectacularly at both. The only tension between NATO member states these days is when Trump says "pay your damn 2%" - which most NATO countries are now more willing to do since Russia has shown they're still willing to do something stupid. Meanwhile Poland and France are practically champing at the bit to try and put NATO troops in Ukraine.
I suspect Russia has taken about a US in Vietnam amount of casualties, and that Ukraine’s casualties are absolutely horrific. I’m in the process of writing a big effort-post about that, but I’m trying to find some mainstream sources for myself beyond “muh gut” “4chan” and “it was revealed to me in a dream”
Ping me when you write this.
That's about my instinct too 50-100k Russian losses, to 250-500k Ukraine.
given leaks, the eternal artillery ratio of both sides, and what I've heard listening to Judge Andrew Napolitano's podcast which has weirdly become one of the most intensive foreign policy interview shows today
I find such large discrepancy hard to believe. If so, why front moves very slowly? Russians have more artillery, but Ukraine has access to American intel & sattelite data.
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I'm definitely interested in a big effortpost on Ukraine - I look forward to reading it.
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