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Notes -
I think it’s just Trump’s fans pumping the stock at retail. There are millions of true believers out there and as long as they keep buying and don’t sell, the valuation is going to stay unreasonably high. Most funds are going to want to stay away from short plays because after GameStop taking on retail is unpredictable and because it’s not worth becoming an official enemy of Donald Trump, being called out in a million angry tweets/truths™️ and in White House press conferences if he gets re-elected and getting harassed by his supporters. All this means the stock has a tendency toward exuberance, especially as Trump comes closer to returning to the White House and supporters see this as a campaign contribution that might even make them money.
Apparently there is 10% short interest, so someone is willing to sell the stock short. My guess is retail - as you point out any big investor who shorted DJT could expect punishment if Trump wins in 2024.
The most likely scenario for small investors in DJT to make money (other than by selling on to Greater Fools) is that Trump wins the election and a big Russian or Chinese company overpays for DJT in order to curry favour with the US government.
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