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PaperclipPerfector  8mo ago (text post)   1166 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 14, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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What game is Macron playing? He's previously suggested France might send French troops into Ukraine if Odessa or Kiev looked like they might fall and has been doubling down on this weird kind of non-committal brinksmanship. https://www.politico.eu/article/im-right-about-not-being-specific-macron-says-doubling-down-on-strategic-ambiguity/

“If Russia were to win, the lives of French people would change," Macron said. "We would no longer have security in Europe."

The French president spent much of the interview arguing in favor of remaining ambiguous, saying only that France would not “lead the offensive or take initiative."

In an Odoxa poll, 68 percent of French respondents said Macron's comments on Western troops in Ukraine were "wrong."

Some in the Z-sphere have been suggesting that the plan is to send French troops to rear areas in Ukraine where they're mostly out of danger and can free up Ukrainian troops for the front. Somebody has to watch Transnistria after all. Eventually, the Russians will break through and NATO forces will advance to block Russia from annexing the whole country, rather like how the Russians had blocking forces in Yugoslavia back in the day. The Z people, like Putin, run on realpolitik and have long been expecting a partition of some kind - Lviv returning to Poland. Western leaders run on a fundamentally different geopolitical model, which is one of the key causes of the conflict.

Is Macron just trying to look tough? Is he angry about the French special forces getting killed in a missile strike, if that even happened? Is he playing a mixed strategy to induce doubt in the Kremlin?

Another perspective: Macron is trying to position himself as leader of Europe https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1768408586055569452

One theory I've heard floated is that there are a significant number of dead French special forces in Ukraine. Putting troops into the country and staging a bus explosion or something gives Macron cover to bring them back with full military honors.

So far France has been one of the stingiest in giving aid to Ukraine: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ Just 0.07% of GDP to military aid. Compared to, say, Germany, at 0.6%, almost 10 times as much. Maybe Macron is getting some heat for not doing enough and now he has to make a big spectacle to make up for it? Or it's just that moving soldiers to the backlines doesn't cost much money.

France seems to have sent its aid under the EU banner per the bottom right chart, they're third in total aid sent. Though a lot of the EU aid seems to be 'committed' rather than 'dispursed'.

Isnt that mostly humanitarian aid? Im just talking about military aid. (And also as a %, since france is one of the larger Eu economies youd expect them to send more)

If it helps contextualize things, here's a video of a phone call between Macron and Putin, listened in on by Macron's advisors, apparently from before the war started.

I admit, I am somewhat seduced by the idea of "Macron-as-European-overlord," but that may be the tiny neoreactionary part of me noticing the conspicuously-Napoleon-shaped-hole in the West.

Thanks for sharing this. Just reinforced my impression of Putin. A conniving piece of trash. But I gained more respect for Macron.

Is he angry about the French special forces getting killed in a missile strike, if that even happened?

what is the source for that one?

(and if it is official statement of RF I will just laugh at you)

Lviv returning to Poland

lol

-- Pole

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