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Notes -
First of all great post.
My opinion is that Commodus hastened the descent into chaos but didn't cause it.
By the time of Marcus Aurelius, the vitality of the empire was already spent (even if it was economically richer than it had ever been). Someone like Commodus was bound to come along. Having five good emperors in a row was a small miracle that never happened before and never would again.
The empire couldn't overcome the tyranny of Commodus because it was weak. By contrast, the empire of a century earlier was able to weather similar tyrants like Nero and Caligula and come out stronger than ever.
And now, a tangent... How has Warren Buffett managed to pick so many winners in the stock market? One of the ways he does so is to buy companies that have untapped pricing power. These are companies that charge less than the market will bear and thus can raise prices for a long period of time without losing market share. Examples include Coke and Apple (note: at the time Buffett bought them, not now).
Rome in the time of Caesar had "untapped pricing power". The government wasn't collecting large tax revenues and there were plenty of lands to conquer and tribes to enslave.
By the time of Marcus Aurelius, all the untapped power had been tapped. The empire was at is territorial and economic peak, but there was no more room to grow. Maintaining the empire's current territory already demanded 100% of its resources. Stagnation and decline were inevitable. Commodus might have lit the fuse, but he was not the cause of the decline.
This, especially given the Antonine Plague that struck during Marcus Aurelius's reign. It might've killed a quarter of the Empire, population it never had a chance to gain back afterwards. The Empire couldn't bounce back after Commodus's tyranny because it had just been seriously weakened.
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