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Notes -
I feel like this place would have difficulty finding someone to argue the strong election hypothesis of votes changed but also have trouble finding anyone to argue against a Trump victory in 2020 if the election was ran on 2016 rules. Both seem to be very difficult positions to take.
More interesting and entirely difficult to prove would be whether the Democrats could have won in 2020 if they didn’t go full tds. TDS I believe was a root cause of COVID lockdown excesses and the severity of the 2020 “everything is racists” and riots. If the Dems stayed normies and didn’t go full scorched earth and just ran on a milder Trump is unstable type of campaign. If the Dems do mass mail-in voting and avoid the riots they win in a landslide in 2020. If they avoid the riots but have closer to 2016 rules it would be quite interesting. One could also say the same thing about the 2024 lawfare attempts as actually boosting Trump despite it obviously be an election strategy for the left.
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