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Notes -
Time is on PRC side, especially demographically.
There are two demographic shifts happening in PRC.
Net demographic decline which will only reduce PRC import dependancy and increase strategic flexibility.
Massive demographic boom in high skill workforce - PRC generating as much as all OECD countries combined in talent.
Even shit tier PRC demographics will producing multiple times more indigenous talent than US via births + immigration due to base effect. Incidentally this relatively new cohort (result of Academic / S&T / R&D reforms in 00s) is barely starting to be tapped, and within 10 years has saw PRC rapidly climbing up science and innovation index controlled for quality. Skilled workforce demographic is divident responsible for advanced economic development and building comprehensive national power. It's how the other Tigers with terminal demographics kept climbing up value chain. It's how PRC went from capturing $4 in assembly fees for every iphone assembeled to $100 in componenent fees. Now it's going after the other $400 left on the BoM. High tech growth still has decades of run way in PRC relative to current position, combined with massive automation (more than next 14 advanced economies combined) and is doing it's part in:
Look at regional military force balance, where PRC is rapidly and massively overtaking. And my guess is, short/medium term (next 5-10 years) PRC rockety advancement will comprehensively negate any US capital assets advantage - see how battleships reset the field. Economically, PRC GDP by PPP has led for years and relative gap has been increasing. Also consider PRC limping in technology driven growth will be coupled with disruption in western growth due to PRC eating advanced economies market share. It will start hallowing out the premium manufacturing sectors west reserved for herself. Once PRC industry starts spitting out mature high value sectors for export, every $1 PRC sells is going to take $3 from western competitors. Or PRC industrial policy will absorb selling at -$1 loss to deny $6 to west. That's the game being played, combination of growth and convergence.
TBH any appeal to demographics on hobbling PRC geostrategic aspirations is stupid for the simple reason that exquisit modern militaries don't require much labour and medium/long term move towards autonomous platforms will require even less. Sustaining military several times current size (which has already been massively downsized due to reforms) is trivial for just the sheer stupid amount of bodies PRC has (and will have). PRC is generating so much skilled talent + covid that there's record youth unemployment - talent btw the PLA has been screaming to recruit.
TLDR no country in the world is positioned to have BETTER high-skilled workforce / demographics than PRC for building economic and military power in the coming decades. And decades is about time PRC needs to properly exploit said workforce.
That doesn't mean declining demographics won't increase pressures / squeeze QoL. Competitive pressure will drive top end productivity if anything. PRC/east asia is used to being pressure cooker society. Meanwhile, unlike more developed Tigers or west, massive regional income disparity + huge home ownership + enviable house hold savings rate = significant (imo most) PRC elderly simply don't have significant expectation (or need) for comprehensive old age social support like those already at risk of collapsing in advanced economies. That's the secret. No need to worry about having an umbrella to weather the storm when *taps head* there's no expectation for an umbrella. The actual demographic storm is going to consist of stubborn savings being turned into consumption and wealth transfers from those with excess into even more consumption, resolving PRC's current economic bug of being unable to stimulate consumption beacuse said savings locked into retirement. Is it going to suck? Yes. Is it going to stop PRC from converging and surpassing US. IMO not even a little.
That's well-stated and something I'll think over.
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