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Notes -
America was arming Ukraine (hence the very different outcome to 2014).
From Putin's perspective:
He can't reach an acceptable political settlement on Eastern Ukraine.
His enemies are arming Ukraine.
Russia's demographics and stockpiles are never gonna get better, while Ukraine's can.
Ukraine is considered a matter of supreme strategic importance he couldn't walk away from.
I suppose it looked like he had to strike. The US not having any intention of attacking didn't mean it wasn't looming.
Containment isn't a friendly strategy, and you may have to try to flip the table to prevent it.
Anyone who believes that nation-states act according to their rational interest should see Germany's absolutely irrational energy policy.
Ukraine demographics are even worse.
Russians stockpiles of weapons aren't doing too badly. They've had days when they fired more artillery ammo than the US Army procures in a year. And they're still not out, somehow. Also making 5 Kalibr cruise missiles a day, that's 1800 a year. Not too shabby for a gas pump country!
For comparison, that's about the amount of Tomahawk missiles US has fired since the first Iraq war.
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