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ymeskhout  10mo ago (text post)   2957 thread views

The Bailey Podcast E035: Ray Epps Does Jay Six

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In this episode, we talk about the deep state, J6, and Ray Epps.

Participants: Yassine, Shakesneer.

Links:

Jack Posobiec's Pipe Bomb Allegation (Twitter)

Pipe Bombs in Washington DC (FBI)

Meet Ray Epps: The Fed-Protected Provocateur Who Appears to Have Led the Very First 1/6 Attack on the US Capitol (Revolver)

Social Media Influencer Charged with Election Interference Stemming from Voter Disinformation Campaign (DOJ)

'I started a riot for the sitting president': Why Ali Alexander won't go to jail for his role in Jan. 6 (Raw Story)

J6 Select Committee Interview of Ray Epps

Ray Epps Defense Sentencing Memo (Courtlistener)

Proud Boys Sentencing Memos (Courtlistener)

Wishing For Entrapment (Yassine Meskhout)

Recorded 2024-01-19 | Uploaded 2024-01-22

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I enjoyed a lot of this, and admired Shakesneer's composure under rigorous questioning even if I think you have the better of the argument, Yassine.

But wow, I wish I'd skipped the first hour. Couldn't you just stipulate that the PMC hates MAGA voters instead of pressing so hard on their motives, in this context? For a while, I thought you might be trying to go Socratic and lure Shakesneer into admitting that the Feds have a rational reason for persecuting conservative groups, beyond losing their jobs (if one grants that they persecute them). But it didn't quite cash out that way.

I'd say that employees of federal agencies have strong motives for their hatred of conservatives, even setting aside the "I can tolerate anything but the outgroup" reasons and fear of losing their jobs, especially if we're talking about the FBI and ATF:

  • Conservative political thought emphasizes the contingency of the state's legitimacy, moreso than the left (CHAZ notwithstanding). Right-learning separatist groups are closer to the mainstream of the conservative movement than those on the left, at least in the US.
  • Conservative political thought challenges the state's monopoly on violence. Pro-gun advocacy makes the FBI and ATF's jobs harder.

And that's how it plays out in real life. I have several friends that are FBI agents, and I occasionally go to parties where more are present. To a person, they take it for granted that Trump and his voters are contemptible. I'm sure it's not unanimous, but it definitely isn't generational - I'm a Gen-Xer, and the parties are generally +/-10 years around me.

Thanks! I too admired Shakesneer's composure against my admittedly aggressive manner, and I can't commend him enough for being open to conversation and scrutiny. He's a friend and someone I genuinely respect as a person and so I don't think this could've taken place had we not already established rapport.

You're not the only one to have criticized the first hour. In the extensive notes I had prepared, I only had 3 perfunctory questions on this topic (who organized the entrapment scheme, why, and how) and I definitely did not expect it to go so long. I really didn't know where the answers were going to go and my questions were primarily motivated with satisfying my own curiosity (the biggest question I had ahead of time is probably why the anti-Trump Deep State would jeopardize Biden's certification vote).

I thought it was important to marinate on this topic because a common pitfall with discussing "conspiracy theories" is when someone tries to straddle both sides of the motte/bailey line and I wanted to nail down some specifics from the get-go. Had Shakes simply said "the FBI has an interest in investigating conservative groups" I probably would've agreed, but with the "J6 entrapment" theory we're not talking about a run-of-the-mill law enforcement endeavor here. If someone is alleging a widespread entrapment scheme that is being intentionally covered up, one of my gut-reactions to determine how plausible this theory is is to sketch out motives and capabilities. This came up elsewhere but "FBI tried to blackmail MLK" is more plausible on its face than "NASA tried to blackmail MLK" because the latter lacks the former's motive and capacity.

Yeah, I don't think there's a plausible story to explain a widespread deep-state conspiracy. But there are other plausible theories (completely unsubstantiated, to be clear). They would involve either

  1. an informant with bad judgement going full Leeroy Jenkins or
  2. an undercover agent assessing the crowd, deciding they didn't pose a real threat, and doing their best to goose the crowd on

In the absence of evidence, those are idle speculation, but I'm a little surprised they didn't come up (or at least not more clearly).

I agree what you propose is much more plausible compared to a widespread cover-up but this illustrates the obvious tension between simplicity of proof and the magnitude of impact. Leeroy Jenkins theory is relatively easy to defend, but one rogue informant is not likely able to motivate a crowd of thousands into doing something they would not have otherwise done.

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