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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   26712 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024

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In 2016-2020, Russia hadn't even prepared for annexing the Donbas, let alone invading Ukraine.

The problem with this take is that by the summer of 2015 Russia had already annexed the Donbass and Crimea in all but name, or have you forgotten all the talk about "friendly green men" from 2014?

The Russians problem seems to be that they drank their own Kool-Aid. They seem to have seriously underestimated the degree of support that Euromaidan enjoyed on the ground in western Ukraine and seemed to genuinely believe that if they landed some paratroopers in Kiev and seized the Rada they'd be welcomed by the populace as liberators rather than with a hail of gunfire and molotov cocktails. That shock of expectation vs reality seems to have set the tone of the war going forward. Ukraine may eventually lose this war but Ukraine losing doesn't necessarily mean a win for Russia.

The problem with this take is that by the summer of 2015 Russia had already annexed the Donbass and Crimea in all but name, or have you forgotten all the talk about "friendly green men" from 2014?

Russia didn't begin mass issuing of passports in the Donbas until 2019. This was exactly to avoid Ukraine viewing it as an annexation, to leave open the possibility of reintegration into Ukraine with a Yanukovich-style president. After all, from a Russian perspective, it's preferable that Ukraine has as many pro-Russian voters as possible. The problem for Putin was that reintegration and voluntary realignment into the pro-Russia camp was no longer a plausible outcome by 2022.

The problem with this take is that by the summer of 2015 Russia had already annexed the Donbass and Crimea in all but name, or have you forgotten all the talk about "friendly green men" from 2014?

Sending some men and weapons doesn't equal to annexation. Many LDNR residents were unhappy that they weren't annexed like some American says for rhetorical reasons. They weren't getting to get Russian pensions or use Russian banks, etc.

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