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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   1949 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Indonesia

The fourth largest country in the world will be holding their own election soon. Ruling President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has been highly popular but is term limited out. The election will be down to three candidates: Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, respectively the Governors of Centrals Java and Jakarta, and the overwhelming favorite to win: Jokowi’s 72 year old Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.

Originally Jokowi and Prabowo were each others’ opponents in the 2019 election, during which they both said extremely bitter things about each other and Prabowo refused to concede, leading to riots by his supporters. Still, he got a place in the cabinet and now has the full institutional support of the establishment behind him.

This is in part due to the extremely clientistic and patronage based nature of Indonesian democracy. Jokowi was actually originally elected as an anti-corruption reformer and his victory was considered a watershed moment for the first ascension of a non-member of the traditional elite. However, ultimately instead of buck the system he just cemented it further, but with his friends and family on top; for his support of Prabowo, Jakowi’s son has been made the running mate and presumptive Vice President. His son actually isn’t old enough yet to legally run, but luckily it was ruled to be kosher by the Constitutional Court’s Chief Justice, who happens to be Jokowi’s brother-in-law. Oh, and I did I mention that Prabowo is actually the son-in-law of Suharto, Indonesia’s 32 year military dictator? And he has the checkered past to go with it:

As defense minister, Prabowo is trying to cultivate a softer public image. But the ex-military man and former son-in-law of Suharto stands widely accused of overseeing abductions of pro-democracy activists and masterminding atrocities in the then province of East Timor, which occurred in the late 1990s. In an interview with Radio Australia, former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Robert Gelbard described Prabowo as “somebody who is perhaps the greatest violator of human rights in contemporary times among the Indonesian military.” [he was banned for entering the United States for a long time because of his record]

In his prior presidential campaigns, Prabowo portrayed himself as an populist strongman, vilified minority groups with divisive rhetoric, and pushed to eliminate some regional and local elections in Indonesia. Prabowo has close ties throughout the armed forces and has presented himself as a leader out of Indonesia’s autocratic and dynastic past; he could well shatter Indonesian democracy and govern like a Javanese authoritarian populist as president.

So while this is technically the sixth election since the collapse of military rule, the whole thing gives off a vaguely undemocratic flavor. To connect to the theme of how China has been dealing with the governments on Taiwan and the Philippines, Jokowi has tried to balance between the United States and China and court investment from the latter. Essentially every candidate running is more China skeptical but Prabowo will likely have to walk that balance as well, though can expect him to deepen security ties with the United States even further.

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