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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   2218 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 11, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Myanmar

The conflict in Myanmar has been heating up more and more with the coalition of ethnic militias working together since October steadily gaining ground on the junta government. In the northeastern Shan state especially, towns are falling to the rebels throughout Operation 1027 (named for the date of the start of the military push). China has warned its citizens to withdraw and the military has released thousands of prisoners in hopes of garnering good will with the public. For the first time people seem to be saying a rebel victory is essentially assured, which would have been insane only a few years ago. Whether that means the junta actually losing control of the whole country, or just of the ethnic breakaway states remains to be seen.

How does everyone feel about it? Well, Myanmar is something of a soft pariah state in Southeast Asia, but also most national governments regionally don’t like the idea of successful coups. China in particular hates the conflict because it happens right on their border, affects Chinese citizens, and sometimes attacks have even landed over the Chinese border. They also don’t want to deal with any kind of refugee crisis. On the other hand, the “Alliance of Three Brotherhoods” is highly pro-China (as is the government) so a victory on their part wouldn’t mean the country realigning or anything. Chinese is allied with the junta but hasn’t helped them much in the conflict either, what’s really important to them is that the conflicts ends and stability is restored. America likewise doesn’t have great options. America is opposed to the junta for obvious reasons, but the ethnic militias aren’t likely to be any more pro-American and none of our allies surrounding Myanmar really want to deal with a potential refugee crisis either.

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