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Yeah, if. That's why I'm inviting anyone at all to provide data, if they're so sure they're obviously correct.
I am glad we've identified the crux of the disagreement. You expect that two different groups of people should have broadly equivalent results because they represent two wider groups of people, one of which is doing their best to resemble the other, if the opposite isn't proven. Most people arguing with you, including me, expect that two different groups of people should have broadly different results, because they have different origins and the athletic results of transwomen depend on how much they resemble their natal sex physiologically, again, if the opposite isn't proven. Neither side really has any data, so both sides resort to "obviously-ing" they way out.
I do not claim that they will obviously have similar performance.
I claim that the other side's reasoning is deeply flawed, and we're actually at a state of ignorance about relative performance.
I claim that there's a simple empirical metric that we can use to determine fairness, that's easy to measure and calculate, and we can use that to answer the question just as soon as anyone bothers to measure it.
I claim that absent any current evidence or valid logic to expect unfairness, we should default towards liberty and freedom and granting rights for now.
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