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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   1761 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 4, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Ethiopia & Somalia

Most people here likely know, but Somalia is a divided country. The northern, formerly British administered section is a breakaway state that has been functionally independent since the Somali Democratic Republic collapsed in 91. Nobody recognizes Somaliland, and Somalia proper claims the whole territory, but really only governs the fractious and unstable southern part, formerly administered by the Italians. Somaliland is much more functional and has no interest in reuniting with its anarchic former partner, but any country making direct diplomatic or trade deals with Somaliland is highly controversial, especially in Africa where many other nation states also have secessionist groups or provinces.

So imagine the outrage now that Ethiopia has signed a memorandum of understanding recognizing Somaliland and giving them a stake in an Ethiopia airline if the latter country grants them use of one of the Somali ports and military bases. Obviously this is a little dicey for Ethiopia considering they are always dealing with secessionist groups, including with ethnic Somalis in their eastern Ogaden region. However, the deal fulfills their longstanding goal of regaining their landlocked country a path to the ocean, lost after the secession of Eritrea. Abiy has been talking about the whole path to the ocean thing for a while and his neighbors interpreted it as him signaling willingness to invade them to gain that path, so honestly this is probably the best possible outcome.

However, Somalia is of course furious about it and has categorically rejected the deal (isn’t there somebody you forgot to ask?) Ethiopia has not exactly been building good will with its neighbors lately, recently failing to establish a deal on water use over their GERD dam with Egypt and Sudan, so it’ll be interesting to see what the coming months bring.

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