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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   26213 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024

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Well, very large part of my lack of enthusiasm toward Russia is that Russia considers Poland as being within their rightful fence.

Yeah, I hear this too. And what's the reliable source for anticipating the inevitable Putin invasion of Europe that I'm always told about?

For me whole point of NATO is to have strong guard dog keeping Russian bear away. Yes, away from they consider their area to grab.

Ah yes. "NATO is justified to manage the security threats provoked by its own existence."

Maybe if they would not do stuff like role playing invasion of Poland and dropping nuclear weapon on Warsaw as part of their military exercises I would be liking Russian government more and would be more supportive for it.

Wait until you hear about the invasion plans the US has cooked up on the backend for its own neighbors. It's a pity we didn't have such hawkish stooges in the Kennedy administration, encouraging him to dig his heels in all the more against Khrushchev. After all, he might not have invaded Puerto Rico.

Yeah, I hear this too. And what's the reliable source for anticipating the inevitable Putin invasion of Europe that I'm always told about?

I want safety for myself, my children and grandchildren. I am not expecting Russian invasion of Poland in 2024 or 2025. But I prefer it to keep unlikely going into 2030s, 2040s and into further future.

And for why Russian invasion of Poland is a security threat... Well, it happened repeatedly in the past, Russia keeps invading and being aggressive and is trying to restore its empire.

(and I am not claiming it is inevitable! if it would be inevitable then trying to reduce risk of it would be pointless!)

Ah yes. "NATO is justified to manage the security threats provoked by its own existence."

Circassian genocide, Russian invasion of Poland etc predate NATO. NATO was created in reaction to Russia being a threat.

Wait until you hear about the invasion plans the US has cooked up on the backend for its own neighbors.

I am not aware of USA roleplaying nuclear attack on specific cities during their military exercises.

In general there is difference between having backup plans and roleplaying imperial invasion during military exercises.

And for why Russian invasion of Poland is a security threat... Well, it happened repeatedly in the past, Russia keeps invading and being aggressive and is trying to restore its empire.

And how many times has Russia been invaded in the last century, approximately? Now tell me they have no valid security concerns of their own that should be respected.

Circassian genocide, Russian invasion of Poland etc predate NATO. NATO was created in reaction to Russia being a threat.

NATO was created as a bulwark against the USSR, not Russia. When the Cold War ended and the Warsaw Pact dissolved, the impetus for NATO should've went along with the rest of it, unless it exists for ulterior motives; and unluckily for the west, Putin isn't stupid enough to be fooled into thinking NATO isn't a military alliance hellbent on economically strangling Russia and preventing it from developing it's sphere of influence.

I am not aware of USA roleplaying nuclear attack on specific cities during their military exercises.

Let me be the first to tell you, 'all' nations run simulations and have attack plans in place for their neighbors. When it was revealed that the US had plans for an invasion of Canada, it was a surprise to everybody that 'wasn't' paying attention to geopolitics.

And how many times has Russia been invaded in the last century, approximately? Now tell me they have no valid security concerns of their own that should be respected.

Can you tell me how many and list this cases?

I remember World War II when they were invaded by own ally, in war they started by invading Poland.

Maybe Soviet–Japanese border conflicts count, but not sure who invaded who.

Anything else? It looks like Russian imperialism in main valid security concern of Russia.

Looking how many times Russia invaded neighbours in this time is quite fun, and managed to surprise me.

NATO was created as a bulwark against the USSR, not Russia.

Russia was/is a problem in its incarnations of Tzarist Russia, USSR and Russian Federation. That is basically the same problem.

Putin isn't stupid enough to be fooled into thinking NATO isn't a military alliance hellbent on economically strangling Russia and preventing it from developing it's sphere of influence.

Yes, NATO exists to preventing Russia from developing it's sphere of influence. In particular, to prevent invading Baltics or Poland. Prevent/blocking invasions of Ukraine is helpful to prevent escalation.

Sadly, NATO isn't a military alliance hellbent on economically strangling Russia. Sanctions were sadly too late and too weak, what exists now should have been applied in 2014 and escalated since then.

Let me be the first to tell you, 'all' nations run simulations and have attack plans in place for their neighbors. When it was revealed that the US had plans for an invasion of Canada, it was a surprise to everybody that 'wasn't' paying attention to geopolitics.

Yes, but not as publicized propaganda exercises.

Can you tell me how many and list this cases?

Well let's see... Napoleon invaded them. Germany invaded them. Japan invaded them. The west invaded them. The US has meddled 'far' more in Russian political affairs than the reverse. Seems to me like they've got some pretty valid security concerns that demand more than NATO's "just trust me bro," sycophants in the US think Russia should be satisfied with.

I remember World War II when they were invaded by own ally, in war they started by invading Poland.

Russia and Nazi Germany had a NAP, they were never official "allies."

Maybe Soviet–Japanese border conflicts count, but not sure who invaded who.

Russia wasn't the initial aggressor.

Russia was/is a problem in its incarnations of Tzarist Russia, USSR and Russian Federation. That is basically the same problem.

Then contrary to NATO's official mandate, Russia's concerns are quite valid if this is an admission that NATO will always be opposed to Russia's geopolitical interests.

Yes, NATO exists to preventing Russia from developing it's sphere of influence.

There you go. And that's how we got where we are.

Sadly, NATO isn't a military alliance hellbent on economically strangling Russia.

Then what explains NATO's actions against them? See The Putin Interviews if you're actually looking for an answer.

Yes, but not as publicized propaganda exercises.

Point: be cynical and draw up plans against your neighbors. Just don't go public with it. It's pretty sad you're going for style over substance on this. If bad optics is the worst you can say about them, I'll happily take the concession.

You asked "And how many times has Russia been invaded in the last century, approximately?"

I am pretty sure that Napoleon was over 100 years ago. (you went with "And how many times has Russia been invaded in the last century, approximately?" limiter)

The US has meddled 'far' more in Russian political affairs than the reverse

For start, we were talking about military invasions, right?

Russia and Nazi Germany had a NAP, they were never official "allies."

They were allied enough to hold joint victory parade and cooperate invading together and sign official documents (secret part of Ribbentrop-Molotov).

Both sides being shitty and running earlier propaganda about each other and one of them being first to backstab is not changing that they were allies.

If you are so deep that you deny USSR/Third Reich alliance then this response chain is not even fun. Reality-adjacent people with alien priorities are fun, reality denial is masturbatory, boring and lame.

Then contrary to NATO's official mandate

how it is contrary to NATO's official mandate? NATO is a collective security system and main threat to its members is Russia.

Then what explains NATO's actions against them?

Which one? The part where they acted against Russian aggressions or part where they failed to respond?

You asked "And how many times has Russia been invaded in the last century, approximately?"

Yes I did. And "approximately" was the key word in that sentence.

For start, we were talking about military invasions, right?

Seems to me like they win the persecution gig no matter which way you look at it.

They were allied enough to hold joint victory parade and cooperate invading together and sign official documents (secret part of Ribbentrop-Molotov).

Does that change what I said at all?

how it is contrary to NATO's official mandate? NATO is a collective security system and main threat to its members is Russia.

Which is quite funny, because every subsequent administration from George Bush on was desperate to convince Russia that exactly this proposition 'wasn't' true, and that they don't view them as a threat and likewise Russia shouldn't view them as a threat.

Which one? The part where they acted against Russian aggressions or part where they failed to respond?

The part where the US refuses to respect the geopolitical security concerns of other countries and is driving the expansion a hostile military alliance all the way up to the borders of Russia. If NATO refuses to respect the security concerns of Russia, don't be surprised when Russia doesn't respect theirs.

Yes I did. And "approximately" was the key word in that sentence.

1912 is "approximately" last century. 1812 is not.

Since 1900, the major threats to Russian security have been:

  • Communist takeover in the context of a lost war of choice (Russia did not have a formal alliance against Serbia and was not obliged to threaten Austria. Russia orders general mobilization to make the threat against Austria more credible, which is the first aggressive move by a Great Power against another Great Power, and also the tipping point after which operational convenience is pushing the Great Powers into WW1 rather than away from it).
  • Domestic incompetence, repression, and genocide by the communist government, including a wide-ranging purge of experienced officers which temporarily gimped the combat effectiveness of the Soviet military.
  • Their ally in an aggressive war against Poland turning on them.
  • Nuclear conflict with their WW2 ally - the proximate cause being the Soviets ratting on the Yalta agreement by refusing to allow free elections in post-war Poland, and more generally setting up client states with repressive domestic policies in its sphere of influence rather than Finlands.
  • A crisis caused by the Soviets escalating said nuclear conflict by trying to put nukes in the USA's backyard.
  • A border dispute with their former ally, Red China.
  • The usual blowback from starting a land war in Asia in 1979
  • The collapse of the Soviet Union (causes unclear to me, but primarily domestic and not foreign) and an associated period of State failure and large-scale looting of public assets.
  • A Muslim insurgency in Chechnya and associated terrorism.
  • An attempted coup by the leader of a mercenary company set up in order to fight aggressive wars.

This doesn't look like invading its neighbors in order to create buffer zones has been a net positive for Russian security.

The collapse of the Soviet Union (causes unclear to me, but primarily domestic and not foreign) and an associated period of State failure and large-scale looting of public assets.

The reasons for that were utter failure of Soviet Union economical system, failure of political one and relative success of competition (google Boris Yeltsin 1989 supermarket for story illustrating how badly they failed). Also, noone believed in system enough to brutally suppress malcontents so they failed also at spiritual level.

(everyone knew that everyone was lying and everyone knew that others know and they lied anyway - and almost the same for stealing, that is not sustainable long term)

1912 is "approximately" last century. 1812 is not.

It's good enough for me.

This doesn't look like invading its neighbors in order to create buffer zones has been a net positive for Russian security.

Seeing as you didn't actually 'dispute' the examples I previously brought up, but merely added to the existing list you own set of conflicts, I'll take my point has having been proven.

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