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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024

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This is very, very false equivalence. Wealth gaps are product of both policies and qualities of population. If you add low IQ permanent underclass to a country, keeping its economic policies same, then GDP per capita does down and Gini up. If everyone has same ability, then very intense competition doesn't create major difference in wealth. It's competition, not wealth gaps per se, creates economic growth.

I'm not claiming this, this was my summary of BurdensomeCount's argument. If it's an uncharitable summary of his view then fair enough but he literally said "Today the USA is much richer than other peer countries in Europe etc. because it has and has had for a long time significantly lower taxes and a much weaker redistributive welfare state compared to places like Sweden and the UK." A distribution of resources would lower the wealth gap.

Also, I don't see any reason to believe the bell curve of IQ distribution has significant differences between countries. The only statistics I've ever seen was on median/average IQs by country/race, not on the IQ distributions in each country. If you have any studies on this I'd be interested in seeing it, as I could not find anything. Regardless, there are literally 0 countries in the world where everyone has the same or similar amounts of ability. I don't see any reason to believe that Ukraine, Belarus, or Armenia is quite homogenous in regards to IQ. If you look at any IQ bell curve charts on race, you'll see that there is a common bell curve pattern. The best example of one bell curve being thinner or flatter on the tails is in regards to gender (women being more clustered around the mean) but even that gender difference still has gaps between the smartest and dumbest. You're claiming the bell curve of IQ in a place like Ukraine is extremely tight around the median but I see no evidence for it.

I dont see strong correlation of what you claim on 2d plot: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gini-coefficient-vs-gdp-per-capita-pip Very low GINI index doesn't help Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia grow economically. It's just a reflection that these countries are quite homogenous regarding IQ.

That's a logarithmic scale on the X-axis, most of the countries with a high Gini coefficient are quite poor. You can see the richer countries are clustered to the bottom right with the United States being the exception. I'll admit I didn't do a great analysis writing from my bed late at night and only spot-checked the map chart in my link, which showed that the countries with the largest Gini coefficients were mostly in Africa/South America which are poorer 2nd/3rd world countries. I took the data from your link and organized it by the most recent data for each country sorted by highest to lowest Gini coefficients (which you can see in the table below) and you can see the years vary, so doing any actual statistically valid analysis on this is quite difficult. A quick correlation on this data shows -0.36 which admittedly is a weak correlation, but this is by weighting each country equally regardless of population, and this is a univariate analysis which is not a good analysis for something as complex as this topic. As I pointed out earlier the dates aren't even the same, ranging from 1992 to 2021.

Anyway, I'm not making any claims in terms of the impact inequality has on economic growth as a whole, I'm providing some counter-evidence to BurdensomeCount's claim, which is that the lack of a redistributive welfare state leads to economic prosperity. I doubt any of the top 20 (or even top 50 except the United States) in the table below have a strong welfare system, yet these countries are not economic powerhouses. My rebuttal of BurdensomeCount's argument does not mean I believe a low Gini coefficient leads to economic growth. It should be clear from my points further down in my previous post that I believe there are other factors other than inequality that better explain economic growth and development.

In retrospect using the Gini coefficient alone is not a good analysis as it doesn't reveal much about welfare, and you'd want to look at changes in GDP per capita over time, but at this point to properly do a statistical analysis is a lot of effort for what is a rebuttal of an argument which in of itself doesn't even have statistical backing. I still think my general point here stands, which is that BurdensomeCount's argument is wrong.

Also obesity and number of HIV+ people in US continues to grow. Probably obesity is not harmful and even good for economic growth.

What are you trying to say here? My point is that wealth redistribution is not a major factor in the economic growth of the United States compared to Europe and I'm not sure what your statement here either refutes or adds to the discussion.

If you actually believe obesity is good for economic growth then I'm genuinely curious as to why you think so.

Edit: Reworded my last point to be less antagonistic, I just assumed you were being sarcastic but I realized I don't know if that's true.

Table of Gini Coefficient Data

Entity Year Gini Coefficient GDP Per Capita Population
South Africa 2014 0.6302607 $13,993.27 54,729,556.00
Namibia 2015 0.5906661 $10,813.23 2,282,709.00
Zambia 2015 0.5713606 $3,365.38 16,248,231.00
Central African Republic 2008 0.56236607 $1,038.34 4,467,237.00
Eswatini 2016 0.54579794 $8,113.24 1,142,529.00
Colombia 2020 0.54173976 $13,387.70 50,930,656.00
Mozambique 2014 0.5399668 $1,228.66 26,038,704.00
Botswana 2015 0.5332503 $13,682.70 2,305,177.00
Belize 1999 0.53262764 $7,954.45 232,750.00
Angola 2018 0.5127211 $6,878.59 31,273,538.00
Saint Lucia 2016 0.5123331 $14,810.64 176,429.00
Zimbabwe 2019 0.5025645 $2,203.40 15,354,606.00
Panama 2019 0.49838337 $31,543.61 4,232,538.00
Costa Rica 2020 0.49250317 $19,824.35 5,123,107.00
Congo 2011 0.4893867 $4,925.38 4,584,223.00
Brazil 2020 0.4888038 $14,021.96 213,196,304.00
Guatemala 2014 0.48278588 $7,939.37 15,713,744.00
Honduras 2019 0.48168167 $5,613.66 9,958,832.00
Burkina Faso 2018 0.47347128 $2,051.22 20,392,730.00
Ecuador 2020 0.47311273 $10,356.98 17,588,596.00
Cameroon 2014 0.46640873 $3,530.28 22,299,590.00
Nicaragua 2014 0.46156293 $5,385.50 6,208,680.00
Jamaica 2004 0.45457473 $10,110.54 2,664,027.00
Mexico 2020 0.4539873 $18,327.99 125,998,296.00
Comoros 2014 0.45334595 $3,183.16 714,617.00
Guyana 1998 0.4511814 $7,556.18 756,705.00
Chile 2020 0.4492094 $23,017.69 19,300,318.00
Lesotho 2017 0.44879702 $2,571.69 2,170,622.00
Peru 2020 0.43794137 $11,176.92 33,304,768.00
Rwanda 2016 0.43710047 $1,907.68 11,930,902.00
Bolivia 2020 0.4361533 $7,679.93 11,936,169.00
Ghana 2016 0.4352088 $4,662.01 29,554,298.00
Paraguay 2020 0.43481943 $13,317.32 6,618,700.00
Uganda 2019 0.42705452 $2,250.02 42,949,076.00
Madagascar 2012 0.4264818 $1,497.01 22,966,242.00
Cape Verde 2015 0.42381087 $5,955.61 552,169.00
Togo 2018 0.42352226 $2,020.97 8,046,680.00
Democratic Republic of Congo 2012 0.42099708 $900.98 70,997,872.00
Turkey 2019 0.41909108 $28,150.06 83,481,688.00
Papua New Guinea 2009 0.41850787 $3,072.63 7,358,887.00
Djibouti 2017 0.4158799 $4,451.68 1,040,242.00
United States 2019 0.41535568 $62,478.25 334,319,680.00
Haiti 2012 0.41103774 $3,015.86 10,108,541.00
Malaysia 2015 0.410664 $24,151.26 31,068,834.00
Iran 2019 0.4093597 $14,084.35 86,564,208.00
Turkmenistan 1998 0.40806928 $3,833.54 4,431,523.00
Kenya 2015 0.40775773 $4,163.93 46,851,496.00
Sao Tome and Principe 2017 0.40749592 $3,934.89 208,050.00
Tanzania 2018 0.4049123 $2,510.97 58,090,444.00
Trinidad and Tobago 1992 0.4027297 $10,923.51 1,285,506.00
Bulgaria 2019 0.40271384 $23,270.23 7,052,536.00
Uruguay 2020 0.40152144 $21,828.64 3,429,087.00
Micronesia (country) 2013 0.40057632 $3,381.95 108,616.00
Dominican Republic 2020 0.3964123 $16,768.43 10,999,668.00
Morocco 2013 0.39548507 $6,352.43 33,803,528.00
Sri Lanka 2016 0.39345774 $12,904.85 21,425,494.00
Tuvalu 2010 0.39139032 $3,334.61 10,570.00
Laos 2018 0.38802433 $7,546.33 7,105,008.00
El Salvador 2019 0.38778764 $9,021.43 6,280,222.00
Samoa 2013 0.3873181 $5,659.85 199,952.00
Burundi 2013 0.3862482 $824.61 10,149,583.00
Israel 2018 0.38577175 $39,936.77 8,456,487.00
Malawi 2019 0.38543174 $1,517.70 18,867,340.00
China 2019 0.38168344 $15,977.76 1,421,864,064.00
Senegal 2018 0.38122472 $3,368.86 15,574,910.00
Gabon 2017 0.38024372 $14,478.13 2,140,225.00
Indonesia 2021 0.3791565 $11,858.15 273,753,184.00
Philippines 2018 0.37811705 $8,365.73 108,568,832.00
Benin 2018 0.378086 $3,040.17 11,940,688.00
Tonga 2015 0.3758744 $5,644.54 106,140.00
Chad 2018 0.37499154 $1,563.54 15,604,213.00
Bhutan 2017 0.3744141 $10,986.89 756,130.00
Niger 2018 0.37281045 $1,193.27 22,577,060.00
Cote d'Ivoire 2018 0.37183565 $4,949.61 25,493,990.00
Solomon Islands 2012 0.37054926 $2,526.15 567,771.00
Somalia 2017 0.36822405 $1,059.14 14,864,224.00
Montenegro 2018 0.36811927 $20,690.29 631,459.00
Mauritius 2017 0.36761206 $22,148.63 1,294,743.00
Mali 2018 0.3613692 $2,185.58 19,934,304.00
Russia 2020 0.3602981 $26,583.80 145,617,328.00
Gambia 2015 0.35918832 $1,905.82 2,253,137.00
India 2019 0.35733858 $6,608.62 1,383,112,064.00
Vietnam 2018 0.35715547 $9,636.01 94,914,328.00
Sierra Leone 2018 0.35690176 $1,610.16 7,861,287.00
Marshall Islands 2019 0.35482943 $5,647.07 44,750.00
Uzbekistan 2003 0.35268798 $3,229.85 25,905,912.00
Liberia 2016 0.3526546 $1,525.46 4,706,106.00
Lithuania 2019 0.35253152 $37,184.45 2,849,083.00
Italy 2018 0.35222572 $42,045.92 59,877,432.00
United Kingdom 2017 0.3514883 $46,372.39 66,064,808.00
Nigeria 2018 0.35127744 $5,089.78 198,387,616.00
Ethiopia 2015 0.34993124 $1,750.67 102,471,896.00
Thailand 2020 0.34985816 $16,848.58 71,475,664.00
Romania 2019 0.348042 $30,006.34 19,524,212.00
Nauru 2012 0.34766182 $7,851.38 10,464.00
Guinea-Bissau 2018 0.34765232 $1,851.89 1,924,954.00
Latvia 2019 0.3448954 $31,038.68 1,916,552.00
Georgia 2020 0.34465188 $13,966.33 3,765,912.00
Australia 2018 0.34333763 $49,052.82 24,979,228.00
Spain 2019 0.34305838 $40,760.31 47,131,372.00
Sudan 2014 0.34243196 $4,776.62 37,003,248.00
Luxembourg 2019 0.34241262 $114,542.50 619,981.00
Tajikistan 2015 0.33995718 $2,959.99 8,524,066.00
Palestine 2016 0.3369004 $6,438.93 4,593,855.00
Jordan 2010 0.3365573 $11,866.88 6,931,263.00
Canada 2017 0.33308205 $48,317.18 36,554,344.00
Switzerland 2018 0.3314105 $70,558.56 8,514,431.00
Greece 2019 0.33104455 $29,721.59 10,574,026.00
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2011 0.33030185 $10,934.09 3,743,143.00
North Macedonia 2018 0.329607 $16,148.46 2,113,497.00
Japan 2013 0.3285473 $39,569.64 127,678,920.00
Nepal 2010 0.32840586 $2,682.70 27,161,572.00
Tunisia 2015 0.32815883 $10,749.49 11,557,779.00
Portugal 2019 0.32762748 $34,945.66 10,289,921.00
Mongolia 2018 0.3274099 $12,052.29 3,163,994.00
Mauritania 2014 0.3261935 $5,020.14 3,843,181.00
United Arab Emirates 2013 0.3251042 $62,354.82 8,751,853.00
Bangladesh 2016 0.32385272 $4,589.09 159,784,576.00
France 2018 0.32380688 $45,245.96 64,277,812.00
Vanuatu 2019 0.32317576 $3,070.35 304,414.00
Seychelles 2018 0.3212532 $28,740.55 103,120.00
Lebanon 2011 0.3183245 $19,216.97 5,045,061.00
Germany 2018 0.31698412 $53,431.40 82,896,696.00
Egypt 2017 0.31533954 $10,435.92 101,789,384.00
South Korea 2016 0.31404856 $39,814.66 51,309,984.00
Cyprus 2019 0.31224227 $41,746.92 1,228,840.00
Malta 2019 0.3104208 $45,433.92 503,646.00
Albania 2019 0.30771738 $13,655.67 2,873,883.00
Estonia 2019 0.30767542 $36,153.43 1,327,039.00
Fiji 2019 0.30706868 $13,241.35 918,472.00
Myanmar 2017 0.3069687 $4,312.95 52,288,344.00
Ireland 2018 0.30602926 $83,340.39 4,834,506.00
Poland 2019 0.30239472 $33,159.75 38,493,600.00
Austria 2019 0.30211553 $55,806.44 8,879,939.00
Hungary 2019 0.29950473 $32,649.14 9,771,799.00
Guinea 2018 0.29591954 $2,471.72 12,554,871.00
Pakistan 2018 0.29589266 $5,113.43 219,731,488.00
Iraq 2012 0.29541856 $9,251.98 33,864,452.00
Sweden 2019 0.29305574 $52,850.57 10,267,922.00
Maldives 2019 0.2928509 $20,574.40 504,518.00
Netherlands 2019 0.29248333 $56,784.04 17,363,260.00
Kosovo 2017 0.29012942 $10,436.17 1,731,670.00
Kyrgyzstan 2020 0.28989273 $4,726.20 6,424,880.00
Serbia 2019 0.28953245 $18,310.08 7,401,056.00
Croatia 2019 0.2890909 $29,352.79 4,129,749.00
East Timor 2014 0.28652927 $3,197.50 1,184,842.00
Kiribati 2019 0.27832702 $1,990.52 124,252.00
Kazakhstan 2018 0.27792874 $25,544.35 18,538,100.00
Norway 2019 0.27742285 $64,385.01 5,348,285.00
Finland 2019 0.27737328 $48,583.43 5,521,539.00
Denmark 2019 0.27723646 $56,813.97 5,795,879.00
Algeria 2011 0.27615732 $11,113.97 36,543,548.00
Belgium 2019 0.27219802 $51,977.18 11,510,569.00
Azerbaijan 2005 0.26554906 $7,106.60 8,656,243.00
Iceland 2017 0.2613158 $55,638.49 343,641.00
Moldova 2019 0.26016647 $13,030.18 3,109,496.00
Ukraine 2020 0.25627363 $12,407.79 43,909,664.00
Czechia 2019 0.25262198 $40,989.73 10,536,876.00
Armenia 2020 0.25171742 $13,357.70 2,805,610.00
Slovenia 2019 0.24384232 $39,034.23 2,112,905.00
Belarus 2020 0.24383356 $19,225.57 9,633,745.00
Slovakia 2019 0.23232324 $31,973.46 5,453,932.00

/images/17044029569390996.webp

A distribution of resources would lower the wealth gap.

This is correct, but I do not think BurdensomeCount's thinks redistributive welfare state and gini index are interchangeable (I don't). This is my main objection.

There are lots of countries with large percent of GDP in wellfare system having very high Gini index regardless.

Also, I don't see any reason to believe the bell curve of IQ distribution has significant differences between countries. In diverse enough countries, IQ distribution might not even look like a bell curve. Googling "brazil iq by race" returns "The mean IQs of the four principal racial and ethnic groups are estimated as whites, 95; "browns", 81; blacks, 71; and Asians, 99"

adding individual bell curves with averages far apart does not look like bell curve.

You're claiming the bell curve of IQ in a place like Ukraine is extremely tight around the median but I see no evidence for it. Ah, I poorly worded it, I mean population of Ukraine is ethnically similar and therefore it should be expected that it has less IQ inequality than country like South Africa or Brazil. (Also, but probably tangential to my point, is has large brain drain)

but this is by weighting each country equally regardless of population Looks like taking only countries with >100M, correlation gets positive.

This is correct, but I do not think BurdensomeCount's thinks redistributive welfare state and gini index are interchangeable (I don't). This is my main objection.

Fair enough. But see my point on the correlation between welfare spending and Gini below.

There are lots of countries with large percent of GDP in wellfare system having very high Gini index regardless.

I have organized and sorted the data for you in my previous post, can you pick out a few countries (other than the US) that are high on the list and has a large percentage of GDP in welfare system?

I've also tried to add some stats on welfare spending, there isn't much, so I put togther a new table below using what sources I could find. Newly added data in new columns is from here: https://data.oecd.org/socialexp/social-spending.htm

If the country is missing that means there was no data on the percentage of GDP spent on public spending.

The correlation between Gini and % spending is -0.61, the correlation between % spending and GDP per capita is 0.36. Again, the same caveats as the previous analysis, except this time we also don't have much data on the highest gini coefficient countries so any analysis here shouldn't be used for any serious argument, but we now see a medium/strong negative correlation between public spending and gini coefficient. I mean is that such a surprise? If you don't like the use of gini coefficient then look at the correlation between GDP per capita and welfare spending and you see a small positive correlation. You could correctly point out that correlation != causation and the more likely explanation is that richer countries distribute after getting their wealth (to do a more appropriate analysis on this we would have to look at changes in GDP per capita over time) but my point is that welfare distribution is not a major factor in economic growth/development and there are more likely answers.

adding individual bell curves with averages far apart does not look like bell curve.

The populations are likely weighed heavily in one race or the other, not like those populations have equal distributions, and again this reveals very little about the tail end of the IQ distributions which is more important when we consider your argument on large gaps in ability leading to higher wealth gaps. Do any of the countries below have significant amounts of populations with differing means of IQ to properly explain the inequality outcome? I'm not saying your argument has no value, if we were looking at specific countries such as the United States there's definitely some merit, but as a general trend across all the countries, I don't think IQ gaps are the main or primary explanation for the higher Gini coefficient in these countries.

List of countries with high Gini index: Namibia Zambia Central African Republic Eswatini Colombia Mozambique Botswana Belize Angola Saint Lucia Zimbabwe

but this is by weighting each country equally regardless of population Looks like taking only countries with >100M, correlation gets positive.

That is such an arbitrary cutoff that conveniently cuts off all the high gini coefficient countries, don't do this.

Entity Year for Gini/GDP Data Gini Coefficient GDP Per Capita Population % of GDP on Social Programs Year for % of GDP Data
Colombia 2020 0.54173976 $13,387.70 50930656 2.342 2021
Costa Rica 2020 0.49250317 $19,824.35 5123107 0.963 2020
Mexico 2020 0.4539873 $18,327.99 125998296 0.52 2020
Chile 2020 0.4492094 $23,017.69 19300318 3.732 2021
Turkey 2019 0.41909108 $28,150.06 83481688 0.218 2020
United States 2019 0.41535568 $62,478.25 334319680 22.7 2021
Israel 2018 0.38577175 $39,936.77 8456487 18.343 2021
Lithuania 2019 0.35253152 $37,184.45 2849083 19.839 2022
Italy 2018 0.35222572 $42,045.92 59877432 30.059 2022
United Kingdom 2017 0.3514883 $46,372.39 66064808 22.1 2021
Latvia 2019 0.3448954 $31,038.68 1916552 19.695 2022
Australia 2018 0.34333763 $49,052.82 24979228 5.128 2019
Spain 2019 0.34305838 $40,760.31 47131372 28.086 2022
Luxembourg 2019 0.34241262 $114,542.50 619981 21.872 2022
Canada 2017 0.33308205 $48,317.18 36554344 7.426 2020
Switzerland 2018 0.3314105 $70,558.56 8514431 17.038 2022
Greece 2019 0.33104455 $29,721.59 10574026 24.115 2022
Japan 2013 0.3285473 $39,569.64 127678920 0.352 2020
Portugal 2019 0.32762748 $34,945.66 10289921 24.639 2022
France 2018 0.32380688 $45,245.96 64277812 31.633 2022
Germany 2018 0.31698412 $53,431.40 82896696 26.722 2022
South Korea 2016 0.31404856 $39,814.66 51309984 14.843 2022
Estonia 2019 0.30767542 $36,153.43 1327039 17.187 2022
Ireland 2018 0.30602926 $83,340.39 4834506 12.779 2022
Poland 2019 0.30239472 $33,159.75 38493600 22.706 2022
Austria 2019 0.30211553 $55,806.44 8879939 29.356 2022
Hungary 2019 0.29950473 $32,649.14 9771799 17.194 2022
Sweden 2019 0.29305574 $52,850.57 10267922 23.671 2022
Netherlands 2019 0.29248333 $56,784.04 17363260 17.565 2022
Norway 2019 0.27742285 $64,385.01 5348285 20.676 2022
Finland 2019 0.27737328 $48,583.43 5521539 29.02 2022
Denmark 2019 0.27723646 $56,813.97 5795879 26.164 2022
Belgium 2019 0.27219802 $51,977.18 11510569 28.965 2022
Iceland 2017 0.2613158 $55,638.49 343641 20.778 2022
Czechia 2019 0.25262198 $40,989.73 10536876 22.012 2022
Slovenia 2019 0.24384232 $39,034.23 2112905 22.839 2022
Slovakia 2019 0.23232324 $31,973.46 5453932 19.057 2022