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Notes -
I'm not sure what was supposed to have happened last year to prompt an election. In mid-2022, the Liberals and NDP had just solidified a not-technically-a-coalition deal. Maybe a collapse there? @Highlandclearances also predicted a higher likelihood of a housing crash and constitutional crisis.
This year, I think the same facts still hold. The Liberals don't have to call one until late 2025. Their polling is terrible right now. My gut feeling is that they stall as long as possible hoping public opinion shifts before then. On the other hand, they're not likely to win the next election anyway. Maybe they try and do damage control by sneaking one in alongside the US election, which is bound to be a shit-show.
My guess:
20%40% chance of an election this year.Edit: Doubling this, as there is an additional reason to hold an election early. The Liberals can lose now and leave the Conservatives holding the bag when things get worse in 2025.
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