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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   1264 thread views

Transnational Thursday for December 28, 2023

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Belarus

…is now officially a nuclear power. Ostensibly Russia has complete control over these assets, we’ll see if that’s true. It’s remarkable that throughout all of this Belarus has not lifted a finger to assist in the war despite ostensibly being a Russian satellite state, no onger even allowing Russian troops to attack Ukrainian territory over the Belarussian border after the first two months of the conflict.

Ostensibly Russia has complete control over these assets, we’ll see if that’s true.

Isn't this just like how the US based nuclear weapons in Turkey? Nobody says Turkey was a nuclear power and it seems unlikely for the Russians to give nukes to Belarus - how would that advantage them? The last times they gave nuclear weapons away, they got burned. China was extremely ungrateful and the Cubans were rather erratic (this is the second, lesser-known part of the Cuban Missile Crisis).

Completely fair example.

Lukashenko's rule in Belarus is a lot shakier than Putin's in Russia. I assume he is afraid of a mutiny if he asks Belarussian troops to fight in Ukraine. It is also worth noting that there was a fairly widespread campaign of railway sabotage against Russian movements through Belarus in the early stage of the war, presumably carried out by Belarussians sympathetic to Ukraine, which the regime did not seem able to prevent.

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