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Notes -
I know this is not what this comment was about, but why was a 1-2% odds of Kyle getting killed assigned in this case?
Hypothetically speaking, if Kyle had not shown up with a rifle, perhaps he would have been fine, but what if I recall correctly happened was that one crazy guy, who kept antagonizing Kyle's crew all evening prior to the dramatic conclusion, ran after him and attacked him from behind, while a second character actually shot at Kyle.
While perhaps Kyle would have been fine if he hadn't started shooting, the combination of getting melee-attacked and a second character closing in on him with a gun does not give me a 98% confidence in his survival.
People routinely die from their head hitting the ground after getting punched, multiple grown men (convicted felons) ganging up on one person with no accountability in sight doesn't forebode well.
At least Kyle made a good example pour encourager les autres. When there's a riot and ACAB, sometimes punching nazis is not enough, especially if the nazis in question are full-grown teenagers with more martial instinct than half a dozen antifas combined.
A second (still uncaught and unknown!) character shot toward Rittenhouse before Rittenhouse raised his gun, and then latter Grosskruetz drew an illegally-concealed handgun and prepared to fire at Rittenhouse.
Charitably, Trace may have been examining things less in the red team exercise sense of what would have happened had he gone into the same environment and done all the same things except had the gone, and more making measures in a more frequentist analysis of what the typical counterprotester/counterrioter encountered. If you assumed only 32 deaths, a 1% fatality rate requires only 3200 confrontations.
Of course, then you dive into the actual facts on the ground, and the definition of 'confrontation' becomes very important. How many people were in a vocal disagreement that maybe involved a thrown punch? Tons. How many ended up completely alone and surrounded by a violent mob, including many who were illegally carrying concealed firearms?
And then we're back to conceding the public commons to whoever could get away with bringing the violent mob there.
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