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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   25097 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 25, 2023

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  1. A very large proportion of Western munitions has been deployed and expended in Ukraine. Stingers, Javelins, HIMARS, Patriot interceptors, artillery shells. It will take many years to rebuild these reserves, which are needed for deterrence and potential war in Asia.
  2. The Russian military is larger and more capable now than it was at the start of the war, they're much more experienced. They actually increased their military production significantly (and we didn't). This is why the European NATO members are scrambling around like headless chickens, sending a German brigade to Lithuania, trying to rapidly arm themselves.
  3. If the Ukrainians aren't winning, then what we were told about these incredible Russian casualties and materiel losses must have been wrong. If they'd killed 300,000 Russians like you seem to think, there'd be at least a million wounded or dead and Russia wouldn't have an army anymore let alone be capable of offensives. Since the Russians have more materiel it stands to reason that they suffer fewer casualties than Ukraine. Likewise, we see all these videos of Ukrainian men being dragged into vans by draft officers - it seems that their need for manpower is very high.

80 IQ Central Asian peasant conscripts using WW1 trench tactics

Coincidentally, just today I saw a video of Ukrainian soldiers mocking a mentally retarded conscript sent to their trench. https://twitter.com/Alex_Oloyede2/status/1740797508400632195#m

  1. The same media and military 'experts' that assured us that victory was just around the corner in Iraq and Afghanistan (send in another Surge, oohrah!) aren't reliable sources on the War in Ukraine, especially when they say things are going well. Either it's incompetence, since we lost those wars. Or they're just there to lie, prop up support for these wars. The Pentagon says the Russians have lost twice as much as Ukraine or more... So what?

The West is not bleeding Russia for 'free'. It's expensive in terms of munitions, wealth and prestige. Europe is suffering considerable energy costs (in the trillions) as a result of their sanctions program, part of the economic war against Russia. Much of our media went around saying 'oh Ukraine must win to preserve the rules-based order and deter Xi in Taiwan', yet Ukraine is losing. This sets an unhelpful precedent for Xi in China - if there are setbacks at the start of the war, just double down and power on through to ultimate victory.

Once Ukraine is beaten, we'll face a powerful, angry Russia in Europe, closely aligned with China. China is the real winner, they get cheaper gas, a useful ally and a weaker West distracted from Asia.

The much vaunted gas crisis never materialized; European gas prices largely returned to pre-2019 levels in 2023; I said 300,000 casualties, including WIA - KIA is likely in the 70-120k bracket; I don’t think fever dreams of Ed Krassenstein Twitter types mean that the Pentagon “expected” Ukraine to win (if anything quite the opposite).

The Russian military is larger and more capable now than it was at the start of the war, they're much more experienced. They actually increased their military production significantly (and we didn't). This is why the European NATO members are scrambling around like headless chickens, sending a German brigade to Lithuania, trying to rapidly arm themselves.

This means exactly the opposite of what you think it does. If even an interminably corrupt, poor, kleptocratic, bureaucratic shithole like Russia can get its act together this much in a crisis, it means the US and other Western could likely jump to serious war footing much faster than naysayers predict. They merely do not yet care, because bleeding Russia in Ukraine for as long as possible is so minor in terms of both blood and treasure for the United States.

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