I don't know to what extent there are established precedents for when a topic is worthy of a mega-thread, but this decision seems like a big deal to me with a lot to discuss, so I'm putting this thread here as a place for discussion. If nobody agrees then I guess they just won't comment.
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Notes -
Yes, even if the judge went with "clear and compelling evidence" instead of "balance of probabilities," Trump supporters would still be up in arms. But here's the thing: it's like if your Uncle Barry was making the decision. Uncle Barry might genuinely be the fairest guy in the world, but if people don't know him, they are not going to trust his judgments, fair or not. And your average American doesn't know anything about the Colorado legal system or how they reached their conclusion. But they've heard about Congress and the Supreme Court their whole lives. These bodies carry weight. They're like the household names of American justice. So, if a ruling comes from them, even though some percentage of people will just never be persuaded, for another portion, they at least recognize that the judgment is coming from a place they recognize and understand.
To answer your question for me, personally, I'm not really a Trump supporter, but I do currently think that the process by which this disqualification happened was unjust. But if the SCOTUS takes this case and, concretely, Roberts and Gorsuch vote to uphold the Colorado Supreme Court's decision, that would bring me a lot closer to accepting that Trump at least has gone through a legitimate process leading to disqualification. I don't always agree with those two but I do have massive respect for both of them.
I think we've reached a point of broad agreement then. While I think the rulings that Trump is ineligible are correct, I also think that this is an issue that absolutely needs to be taken up and settled definitively by the Supreme Court (and indeed, every decision on the topic has basically begged them to do so). I don't expect the rest of the country to simply accept a ruling from Colorado as the word of god.
As far as individual justices go, I think there's a pretty decent chance that Gorsuch and Roberts end up on opposite sides of this issue. Gorsuch has pretty strong "apply the law as written" attitude that is going to make it hard to persuade him of arguments like "this one part of this one amendment is not self executing in this context, despite nothing in the actual law saying that". Roberts on the other hand could very well buy an argument like that. His overriding philosophy is that the court should avoid becoming itself a participant in the political process, and he has shown himself willing to embrace some pretty advanced mental gymnastics in service of that goal. I can very easily see him effectively saying "Hey congress, if you want this to happen, pass a law."
Yes, I agree with your assessment of Gorsuch and Roberts, which is why if they do agree I could pre-commit to following whatever they say as both wise and respectful of the relevant laws as written. Not sure what I'd do if they disagree but again I think you're right, Gorsuch is more likely to apply the law with strict correctness while Roberts will look for the decision that is best for the political system overall. My heart is with Gorsuch but I think I'd have to go with my head and favor Roberts.
And they will both vote for Trump in this case because it isn’t close.
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