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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 18, 2023

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I have speculated about such a strategy before myself. I do not know if anti-Israel forces have thought through such a strategy, but to me it makes at least some sense. Israel's enemies are not capable of defeating it using conventional war. US and Israeli military forces are too powerful for that, and in any case Israel could use nukes if it was ever being conventionally overrun. Developing nuclear weapons and then using them against Israel could work - Israel is a small country and even nuking just, say, Tel Aviv might essentially end the Israeli project. But Israel would retaliate with its own nuclear forces and there is a non-trivial chance that Israel would retaliate by nuking not just the attacker, but also other Muslim countries. However, if Israel's enemies could impose a constant state of insecurity on the Israeli population that is significantly above the current state of insecurity there, it could conceivably cause many of Israel's most talented people to leave the country. One of the problems with such a strategy, though, is that the new Israeli diaspora would to some extent continue to materially support Israel, just from their new countries. If Israel retains a large core of people who are willing to tough things out and at the same time is being just as supported materially as they are now, just through donations instead of taxes, I am not sure that much would actually change.

A big problem with this strategy is that there's no way a state of insecurity could be placed exclusively on Israel without inspiring global copycats. The choice won't be insecurity in Israel vs security Elsewhere. It will be a government willing to defend you in Israel vs governments unwilling to defend you elsewhere, which is basically the same equation that drew countless Jewish migrants to Israel in the first place.

One of the problems with such a strategy

The other problem is assuming Israel is just going to sit there and take it. Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, none of them are invincible themselves, if Israel wants to they can hit back hard. It's not going to be easy, but of all countries, Israel is the least likely one to go down without a fight, putting aside the Samson Option.