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Notes -
The default conclusion of this conflict has always been that the Arabs eventually win. They have the numbers and the determination. They are anti-fragile in the sense that they can keep losing and only have to win once when stars align which will be the final victory. Israel's existence owes itself to a fragile set of geopolitical arrangements, and extraordinary competence and determination from a tiny population.
I can't help but think that whether Hamas intended this result or not, their attack has been extraordinarily successful. Israeli politics are entering a spiral of radicalization and low-IQ decision making that Arabs can afford, but Jews can't.
This is exactly why I consider Israel's continuous move towards an ever Greater Israel to be very short sighted. It may strengthen them in the short term by getting them a bit more land and resources, but they have been squandering the chance to create acceptance for Israel from the Arab civilians around them from a position of strength.
If a large number of those Arab civilians come to believe that it's fine or even beneficial to them for Israel to exist, then even if Israel loses its immense position of power (in large part due to having the US back them), they will still be safe, like France is safe from Germany now.
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