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I'm not saying the government is well-versed in leadership strategy. Surely, though, you can see why there would want to be a façade over this reality. There has to be an attempt at showing that the government is doing things to improve the lives of the people it rules.
I'm not interested in a stick-only approach - I want carrots. This is how a government would get more of my compliance. This is how you would get me to not press the red button and vote for Trump as he sits in a cell. I'm still convinced that his win in 2016 was mostly driven by the populace trying to signal this: "more carrots, or else".
Not really.
Perhaps, but not that much of one, I'd say. What do you suppose the average 3rd Century BC Chinese peasant felt about what Qin Shi Huangdi was doing to improve his life (imposing an infamously-harsh legal code and conscripting him to start building the impressive-but-useless boondoggle known as the Great Wall)? What sort of "carrot" was dangled before the average Neo-Assyrian subject during the reign of Ashurbanipal?
The point of the "stationary bandit model" is that the stationary bandit is, by his nature as such, preferable to the mobile bandit. The primary "carrot" for most regimes has been protection from said mobile bandits, and that looks to have been enough for the majority of recorded history.
When it comes for "improv[ing] the lives of the people," you don't have to be all that great, you just have to be better, in the eyes of enough people, than Lord Humungus.
And the elite reply, near as I can tell, continues to be "no carrots for you, and what 'or else,' anyway?"
I'd say that last is the real question. Or else what, exactly?
There doesn't need to be a trigger for an armed resolution. How much political blood and treasure has the ruling class expended to kill Trump? Why spend all this effort when the average voter is a sheep just begging for slaughter?
If they weren't being such obviously hypocritical liars things would be easier. Perhaps it's worth the expense to see how far they can push.
Probably very little — particularly relative to the amount at their disposal — given he's still alive.
Because their own self-understanding and self-image require the pretense of a casus belli before they can really stick it to the other tribe (like so many of my classmates at Caltech deeply wanted to).
A person I follow on tumblr once reminisced about his college days and mentioned hanging out with students from upper-class backgrounds who would opine on "the world-historical necessity of Flyover genocide." What if that is how far they can push? Is it really still worth the risk?
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