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There are a few hypotheses here:
In 2, there's an assumption smuggled in, which is that absent a "religious" belief system, viewing life realistically means that children are a net negative. But this all depends on what one values. I'd basically interpret a belief system that concludes, after looking realistically at things, that children are a net negative as self-centered hedonism. It's the self-centered hedonism that is the problem, not looking at things realistically. One can certainly value children in themselves while being consequentialist atheist materialist rationalist.
What's needed is a value system that takes a longer view while accepting reality (insert diatribe about blank-slateism causing everything wrong in the world). Basically, future people matter, happier, smarter, better future people matter, and the best thing one can do with their life is make an infinite tree of such people by having kids. It might be that what I'm describing basically is Judeo-Christian ethics, but I think removing the supernatural takes us so far from what the original religions are about that it doesn't make sense to call it that.
That's certainly true for me. I want 3 kids, ideally, but regardless of the financial hardship it might cause me, it's 2 or bust.
The future belongs to those who show up, and I can't imagine there are many people who are more likely to be similar to me than my own flesh and blood, yet.
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Not necessarily; there's the pessimistic anti-humanism of more philosophical antinatalism, wherein children are also a net negative to themselves.
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