Apologies if this is a double post. I posted the original earlier but was told it appears as deleted to other users. Here's hoping it works this time.
This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum lives in or might be interested in. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
It looks like the corruption scandals aren’t fully unwound, and the PS (the ruling socialist party, technically centre-left) have been consistently losing support in the polls (wikipedia), possibly losing as much as half of their seats. These seats seem to be moving, evenly split, towards the centre right and far right parties.
So I expect the trend there will continue. Which means all signs are pointing towards a coalition government being formed between the PSD centre right party and Chega! (Enough!) - the far right populists, who are considered to be a hate group by some.
Chega! had just one seat in its inaugural year (2019), went to 12 seats in 2022 (~7%), and is currently on track to likely double that in the next election. They support things like chemical castration and death penalty for certain crimes, and members have expressed views that some interpret as racist (primarily focused on Islamic and Roma immigrants).
The March timeline for the election is calculated to maximize chances to defuse some of their support. Most of the support for the PD and SPD has come from their consensus on some very careful management of the economy - eliminating debt etc…
And the hopes are that, especially as tax season comes around, the impact of their work, especially on the middle class, will be felt. Ideally this will help either the PD gain some votes back, or the SPD pull support back away from Chega!. It’s very unlikely the PD and SPD will ally with each other. So while neither wants to be forced into negotiations with Chega!, it might be the party that ends up in the lead will be forced to do so. Chega!s views are unsavoury to most of the population, unpopular within the greater EU, and, due to their more extreme views, any coalition with them is likely to be unstable.
Personally, I’m skeptical that any plans to defuse Chega! will succeed by enough margin to protect against having to deal with them. The two main parties are both centrist, and seen as not differentiated enough in some quarters. At the same time, the recent corruption scandals play directly into Chega!'s rhetoric. So there's a combination of a (perceived) lack of differentiated alternatives, mixed with it being usually almost a given these days that populist support will switch towards the right end when faced with scandals (so that’s my strong prior).
Not only that, but Chega! is also consistently seen as the “cooler, edgier” party by younger voters (ones that are just now getting or have recently gained the right to vote), and the other parties can’t seem to put a dent in that impression. That's despite their youth group being significantly more extreme in their messaging. (Portuguese youth tend to vote on the right, historically speaking, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Portuguese_legislative_election#Electorate - ie for the right leaning parties PSD+CH+IL)
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