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PaperclipPerfector  11mo ago (text post)   3954 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 26, 2023

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The most likely scenario where a Republican is President in 2025 is Trump with small GOP majorities in both chambers of Congress. In this case Project 2025 definitely can be implemented - and my read is it probably will. Having skimmed the Project 2025 policy book, I don't think that the Supreme Court will block anything the admin does, and they have playbooks for dealing with Deep State or Congressional GOPe obstruction. I don't think a seriously implemented Project 2025 which is somehow foiled by Trump's opponents to be a likely outcome - it is more likely to fail due to self-sabotage.

The major ways this could happen are:

  • Trump chooses not to implement it, and instead do something else. In particular, the Project 2025 policy book is mostly about things with big long-term consequences that can be done relatively quietly by executive order while looking like a normal conservative administration. The whole point is not to engage in highly visible abuse of power in a way which would unite people against you. Invoking the Insurrection Act on day 1 and sending troops to take over the NYPD is the opposite of this.
  • Trump starts implementing it, but gets distracted by a shiny thing in a way that throws the project off course. The most likely shiny thing would be revenge prosecutions, particularly if he goes after Republican politicians who have been insufficiently personally loyal to Trump. A senile do-nothing Trump does not derail the project as long as he gets a few key senior people (who have already been identified) into post who can run the project while he watches gorillas on cable TV or whatever. An active-but-distracted Trump will in turn distract the people who need to focus to make Project 2025 work.
  • Heritage staffers have snuck enough GOPe figures onto the list of possible appointees that the key part of Project 2025 (appointing 100% MAGA Republicans to several thousand key posts) doesn't happen. I was not paying sufficiently close attention, but my read from a distance was that GOPe political appointees did more to sabotage Trump's first-term agenda than the Deep State did.
  • There simply isn't enough legibly loyal MAGA talent to staff the administration and the list ends up full of duffers. Basic stuff doesn't get done because the people who should be doing it are lazy/stupid/corrupt and the substantive plan doesn't move forward.

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