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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 20, 2023

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You are assuming that people wait in their homes for the SWAT teams to come for them, which it is not clear they will do.

Because that's what all the fellow Red Tribers I talk to proudly declare they're going to do, and sometimes going on about how they'll shoot anybody who calls on them to do more. "We're the people who, when someone tells us to breathe, suffocate to death. It's our superpower." "'Fourth generation warfare' means the 'lone wolf' with no coordination, supplies, logistics, plan will automatically win over any superior number of well-supplied, well-coordinated troops!"

Further, you are assuming that the capability is limited to our ubiquitous autoloading cartridge-firing weapons

Plus some limited explosives, crudely-assembled technicals, etc. The problem is that amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. And logistics require coordination. As in the German Peasants' War, it's these that win the war. One side is highly coordinated (read David Hines), while the other is practically allergic to coordination (at least partially due to the other side's ability and willingness to come down hard on any attempts to build it, but also due to fundamental temperament).

the political fights over gun control are useful to coordinate within Red Tribe over the question "is it time to fight?".

Except that from what I see — particularly given the Left's deft hand at proverbial "frog-boiling" — the answer is consistently never. "This is not the hill to die on." Nor is the next, when we retreat to that one. Nor the next, nor the next. I've seen fellows on the right lay out some "redline" where the Left will have truly "gone too far" if they cross it… and then a decade later, when it's indeed crossed, well, pick your battles, "this is not the hill to die on," and David French may have a point with his latest "the Conservative Case for [Insert latest left victory here]" piece, don't you know?

Once the question is answered to the affirmative

It never will.

it seems to me that autoloading cartridge smallarms largely go to the sidelines.

In favor of, what, McVeigh truck bombs? Light aircraft crashed into IRS offices (full of nothing but entirely replaceable cogs in the vast Federal machine)?

if blues can successfully confiscate personal firearms,

I think they'll mostly just keep salami-slicing, plus anarcho-tyranny if you use them in self-defense, plus demographic trends, to make that increasingly small and irrelevant without any big, triggering mass confiscation

inflict serious social and legal consequences on non-woke Christianity

Beyond what they're already doing? Plus, again, demographics ̉— sure, the Amish and Mormons have the birthrates, but the Left have education, and Wisconsin v. Yoder and homeschooling are both doomed long term

and maintain something approaching the current economic and socio-political conditions,

This, I don't think they can do, but one can very easily stay on top in a decline. Tocqueville's Law — it's when improving conditions begin to slow that people rebel. When things decline, people are too busy fighting for their own individual "slice" of the shrinking "pie" to meaningfully rebel. And the Iron Law of Institutions — better to reign in Hell, and all that. There's a lot of ruin in the West, and Industrial civilization has a lot of seedcorn needed for its maintenance that can be diverted to propping up the system instead, allowing them time to crush all rivals before the arrival of the inevitable crash (which thus proves so devastating that we're knocked so far back into pre-industrial conditions that it's impossible to ever recover).