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Notes -
I think the catalyst for lower home prices is going to be rising unemployment rates. As the higher for longer interest rate strategy by the Fed plays out we could start to see increasing unemployment. This is because higher interest rates mean that less business endeavors are profitable so less employees are needed. Rising unemployment results in defaults/forced sales in a time where there are less people that can afford to buy homes.
I don't have any confidence in predicting if unemployment rates will significantly rise. The fed might pull off a soft landing and if that is the case there wouldn't be much of a catalyst for lower housing prices.
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