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Transnational Thursdays 26

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum lives in or might be interested in. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Armenia

I’ve covered before how Armenia went from being a quasi-Russian protectorate to eventually moving from the camp. In the 2020 war Russia did little to back Armenia up; after the Ukrainian invasion Armenia condemned Russia, joined the International Criminal Court which indicted Putin, canceled joint Russian military drills, and even started doing military drills with the US. When the most recent invasion happened Russia of course did nothing. The most recent update and perhaps final step in Armenia leaving the Russian orbit is Armenia this week formally announcing that they will not attend the Russian-led Collective Treaty Security Organization summit, which normally includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and, in theory, Armenia.

Of course, the United States didn’t really back Armenia up in NK either, so they’re left to deal with their unruly neighbor on their own. Rather than choose to continue to fight, they chose instead the route of peace. Both leaders have now said a diplomatic treaty between them is very near to finalized. Armenia has, unsurprisingly, rejected Russia’s offer to broker the deal.

Separately, Armenia has now signed on to a deal that does involve Russia - a transit trade agreement with the former two countries as well as Iran, Syria, and Turkmenistan. The North-South transport corridor has been a project Iran has wanted for some time now, but that in theory was intended to pass through Azerbaijan, so it will be interesting to see what future it has in light of the conflict - clearly the impacted countries are all still interested!