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The way I see it, the war was lost when Ukraine didn't crumble in the first couple of weeks. I'm sure Putin realizes that. Even if binders
full of womencurated by his aides are his only source of daily news, interservice rivalry should keep him relatively well-informed. He's not willing to give up right now because that will basically amount to an admission of defeat, and vae victis. Who knows what the USA will demand before Russia is allowed to rejoin the world economy? LDNR? Crimea? $300bln in reparations? Resignation of everyone who supported the war? Disarmament?So, the theme of the month is consolidation. Freezing the conflict. Waiting it out. Maybe the EU freezes over this winter and starts talking about a truce. Maybe the US finds itself busy with internal politics after the midterms. Maybe China finally decides to finish its civil war and everyone forgets about Ukraine. Maybe Covid comes back. Maybe Zelensky himself does something stupid and pisses off the nationalists. Or maybe Putin himself doesn't wake up one day and doesn't have to deal with the mess he has created. It worked for Nicholas I.
The mobilization is not about turning the tide and marching all the way to the Western Bug or at least the Zbruch and the Goryn. Who's going to make all these tanks, IFVs, howitzers and airplanes needed to outfit an army that large? Defending against Ukraine requires 1/3 of their forces. Advancing on them requires 3x their forces, a ninefold increase. It's better to survive until the autumn rains make any large-scale operations impossible, to dig in, to double the density of your troops so they can at least man the whole frontline and avoid humiliating breakthroughs. And hope for a friendly black swan.
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