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Notes -
The pro Russian essayists I follow have argued that the retreat to the Oskill line was strategic and purposeful and that breaches across the river have been exaggerated with the only real beach head occurring in Kupyansk (SP?)
Of course this is exactly what I would expect to hear as a kind of cope for pro Russian bubble but a week after the breakthrough, Lyman is still held and when I look at the map it does look like Russia moved from a clear over extension to something that looks like an imminently defensive line. So I believe the strategic pullback is a plausible explanation even if it happened sooner or more quickly than they wanted. I have heard reports of abandoned equipment and vehicles, which is exactly the kind of thing you want to avoid in a strategic retreat.
Everything could change tomorrow but so far the Oskill Lyman line has held and apparently Russia withdrew from Kharkiv in the North, allowing Russia's border to function as a kind of political defense, (i.e. if you cross this line you have escalated the conflict and I can call the draft, threaten nukes etc.)
But either way it's clear that Russia is now in a much more defensible position as Winter approaches. Because of energy costs, it seems to me that time is on Russia's side as the sanctions destabilizes NATO countries. Or at the very least, Russia stands to refill their coffers as the price of gas goes up precipitously.
I'm not sure the pause is particularly well-rationalised as Ukraine suddenly hitting on a well-defended position so much as logistics needing to catch up and forces recuperate while the crossings are better supported. I'd expect a push to the Luhansk Oblast border within a couple of weeks.
I'd expect a push even sooner now that the referendums and partial mobilization have been announced.
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