This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum lives in or might be interested in. Feel free to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
Armenia
After Azerbaijan’s conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh and subsequent flight of the inhabitants, the previous few weeks have seen the US government warning about the threat of Azerbaijan continuing onwards to invade Armenia and Canada threatening to start sanctions. I covered last week one commentator who felt war was imminent, but recently Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has surprised everyone and actually said he wants to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and restore diplomatic relations. Pashinyan was also PM during the 2020 war and narrowly survived being unseated by domestic protests.
I guess a man knows when he’s beat, and this probably is good insurance against an actual invasion, but likely the fallout will be devastating for him politically. Russia, historically Armenia’s protector though the two have fallen out of friendship, was apparently not consulted on the decision and requested more information from Armenia on their plans.
I suspect Armenians realized that they have no hope, Russia, to which they wanted to align, has zero interest in them, and they are fresh out of friends. On the other hand, Aliev is being smart and content with taking the win and not pissing off the West unnecessarily, at least for now. They wanted Karabakh back for years, now they have it and will likely have enough to do for now to absorb it. So for now it probably will quiet down for a while.
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