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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023

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Economists first underestimated inflation, then underestimated consumers and the labor market. The key question is why.

Because Economics is a pseudoscience best described as "monkeys flinging shit at the wall to see what sticks"? I swear the US has this conversation like once a decade. "Why didn't the economists predict [x]?" "How could the economists have been so wrong about [y]?" "How did nobody see [z] coming?" Nobody predicted the Great Depression. Nobody predicted the DotCom burst. Nobody predicted Stagflation. Nobody predicted the 08 Recession. "Nobody" here being used to mean "the vast majority or overwhelming majority of those employed in the economic sector" not literally nobody. Yes I know Michael Burry exists. Michael Burry has also predicted ten of the last two recessions, and rather famously aggressively shorted Tesla right before the stock literally doubled in price. Michael Burry is a very smart bear economist, who believes the market is always about to shit itself, and routinely bets on the economy shitting itself, and routinely loses. Sometimes though he's right, and when you hedge your bets and get to play with a billion dollars when you're right you're right big.

The economy is cyclical. It goes up, then it goes down a bit, then it goes up some more, and then down some more, on a roughly ten-year timeline. And every. Fucking. Time. We get a deluge of articles crying about "how did nobody see this coming????" There won't be an economic downturn in 2000. Actually, no wait, the NASDAQ has plunged we're doomed!. Actually, no wait, we're all going to be fine. Not to worry everyone, 2008 is going to be a good year for the economy. OH GOD WE'RE ALL GOING BANKRUPT HOW COULD ECONOMISTS HAVE MISSED THIS!?

Rinse and repeat ad infinitum. Economists have no earthly idea what's going to happen to the market tomorrow, much less six months from now, and not at all a year from now. Anyone who says otherwise is usually trying to sell you something, and the fact that we as a society are completely befuddled by this incredibly boring truth never ceases to amaze me.