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Notes -
I think you're thinking about it backwards. In the mansplaining case, it's that "this specific human being standing in front of me did something I find annoying, and I lose one useful tool for attack if I acknowledge that person as non-binary instead of a man; therefore, he's a man." In the transwoman rape case, it's that "this theoretical transwoman (even if a specific person is referenced, the person remains theoretical because she's presumably not in direct contact with that transwoman) did something awful and distinctly male, but that doesn't affect me in any way; therefore, we should take her at her word that she's a woman in every single way that she wishes to be acknowledged." It's a sort of "luxury belief" situation. Believing that the person in front of her is non-binary has immediate and harsh consequences to her, and thus she can't afford to believe it, but believing that a transwoman who raped someone is a real woman in every way has no consequences for her in any way, and thus she can afford to believe it.
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