naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I think the mistake is assuming that many Middle Eastern armies are competent. There are a handful of 'competent' fighting forces in the region - Hamas, Hezbollah, some of the Houthis, some units of the Syrian army that have better training and a good culture, some of the Iraqi Shia militias, and arguably the IRGC's Quds Force although as an actual fighting force they have a mixed record. For a successful full assault on Israel all of them would have to participate and do so extremely successfully, in addition to a poor showing from the IDF. That's possible, but not necessarily likely. It would also open the door to all of the domestic and regional conflicts that most of these groups are ordinarily dedicated to managing. Israel could fund Sunni Islamists more heavily and keep much of Iran and allies’ strength tied up in Iraq and Syria if absolutely necessary, for example.
An Islamic crusade against Israel has always been the 'primary' risk, but conversely the risk to the Saudis that the 'Shia crescent' encircles Arabia is existential in a way that Israel certainly isn't, Turkey has a strained relationship with Iran even if it isn't hostile for now, Egypt certainly doesn't want Hamas to gain in prestige because a resurgent Muslim brotherhood inevitably means some degree of destabilization. Failed ceasefire attempts have been ongoing in Yemen for years. For them to put aside their differences would take a lot.
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Notes -
I think the mistake is assuming that many Middle Eastern armies are competent. There are a handful of 'competent' fighting forces in the region - Hamas, Hezbollah, some of the Houthis, some units of the Syrian army that have better training and a good culture, some of the Iraqi Shia militias, and arguably the IRGC's Quds Force although as an actual fighting force they have a mixed record. For a successful full assault on Israel all of them would have to participate and do so extremely successfully, in addition to a poor showing from the IDF. That's possible, but not necessarily likely. It would also open the door to all of the domestic and regional conflicts that most of these groups are ordinarily dedicated to managing. Israel could fund Sunni Islamists more heavily and keep much of Iran and allies’ strength tied up in Iraq and Syria if absolutely necessary, for example.
An Islamic crusade against Israel has always been the 'primary' risk, but conversely the risk to the Saudis that the 'Shia crescent' encircles Arabia is existential in a way that Israel certainly isn't, Turkey has a strained relationship with Iran even if it isn't hostile for now, Egypt certainly doesn't want Hamas to gain in prestige because a resurgent Muslim brotherhood inevitably means some degree of destabilization. Failed ceasefire attempts have been ongoing in Yemen for years. For them to put aside their differences would take a lot.
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