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Soriek  1yr ago (text post)   1073 thread views

Transnational Thursdays 23

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum might be interested in. I’m increasingly doing more coverage of countries we’re likely to have a userbase living in, or just that I think our userbase would be more interested in. This does mean going a little outside of my comfort zone and I’ll probably make mistakes, so chime in where you see any. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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China

China has been criticized by various talking heads and analysts for letting its impending economic problems carry out without trying ordinary fiscal stimulus. Well, it seems like they are pursuing stimulus now:

China is set to unleash fresh fiscal stimulus to shore up its economic recovery, drawing on a well-used playbook that relies heavily on debt and state spending but falls short on the deeper reforms called for by a growing number of analysts.

Some government advisers are recommending China lifts its 2024 budget deficit target beyond the 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) set for this year, which would allow Beijing to issue more bonds to revive the economy, policy insiders and economists have told Reuters.

The world's second-largest economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, improving the chances Beijing can meet its growth target of around 5% for 2023…

China's parliament is set to approve just over 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in additional sovereign debt issuance when it concludes a five-day meeting that began on Oct. 20, sources told Reuters.

Such bonds will likely be used to fund water conservancy and flood prevention projects and come on top of an expected front-loading of 2024 local bond quotas…

For those [government economists] looking for structural reforms, the focus is on policies that spur urbanisation and household spending power, reduce the reliance on investment and level the playing field between state-owned enterprises and private firms.

Without such changes, economists warn China could be headed for a long-period of deflation and stagnant growth that fails to lift living standards for the country's 1.4 billion people.

Speaking of intergovernmental debates, another senior CCP leader has been removed; unclear if these are isolated incidents or the beginnings of another shakeup:

China removed its defence minister on Tuesday, the second ousting of a senior leader in three months, raising questions about the stability of the leadership team around Chinese President Xi Jinping.

General Li Shangfu, who has been absent from public view for two months, was dismissed as defence minister and state councillor, according to state media.

China also announced that Qin Gang, who was removed as foreign minister in July, was stripped of his state councillor position.

Li at least seems to have been caught in an affair and just not doing a great job at his diplomatic duties, so maybe reasonable to can him. If there is a common thread here, it’s of course national security:

Both Li and Qin serve among China’s five state councillors, a senior position in the cabinet that outranks a regular minister. Li also sits on the Central Military Commission, a powerful body headed by Xi that commands the armed forces.

Meanwhile, the surprise removal of two top generals has rocked the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, an elite unit set up by Xi to modernize China’s conventional and nuclear missile capabilities, sparking concerns of a broader purge in the military.

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