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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   30317 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #2

This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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How is it safe for Biden to visit Israel with a war raging next door? Like he’s got what, 100 secret service with him at a given time? Or maybe it’s even 500, I dunno. But I assume he’s not bringing tanks, mounted guns, and all that good stuff.

What is stopping like Hamas/Iran/Al Qaeda from saying “here’s our chance” and throwing everything last thing they’ve got and going after him? Is it just the host county, Israel in this case, is responsible for security, and must I assume go to great lengths with a US president in town?

This is putting me on every list, but the best way to destroy AF1 would be to shoot it down when it's taking off. The plane is slow, carrying lots of fuel, a crash landing will probably result in a massive fire. The biggest problem is sneaking multiple MANPADs close enough to whatever Israeli military base AF1 takes off from.

If you have to attack from outside Israel, you need something like S-300. We know even a smaller SAM like Buk can shoot down passenger jets at cruising altitude, but I would expect its missile to be intercepted. Two problems: Israeli air defence is state of the art, so they can probably intercept even an S-300 missile; Hamas doesn't have an S-300 launcher andnever will. Iran and Syria do, so Hezbollah could theoretically be given one, but hiding a convoy of large military trucks from Israel in South Lebanon is practically impossible.

Catching Biden on the ground is possible if you know there's some outdoor ceremony planned. A 2B9 automatic mortar can be set up 4km away from the target, but again, there are multiple issues with this plan. It's not man-portable, so you need to sneak it in a truck and set it up in someone's courtyard. Not easy when we're talking about Israel. You can rig a loading system to sustain that 100 round per minute firing speed and dumb mortars can't be intercepted or jammed like drones or guided munitions, but it's not accurate without a forward observer, which is not possible here. Iron Dome/Beam won't be able to intercept several dozen mortars that you can lob before the first one is spotted, but you're likely to miss the POTUS altogether.

Iran and Syria do, so Hezbollah could theoretically be given one, but hiding a convoy of large military trucks from Israel in South Lebanon is practically impossible.

Hezbollah is also not insane; if they intervene it’ll probably be direct strikes against Israel and not assassinating the leader of a theoretically neutral country with 100 warplanes parked directly off the coast of their territory.

Biden is with the Israeli top brass and about as safe as they are- and because Israel has far and away the best military in the region, that’s very safe.

The greatest and deadliest enemy Biden faces are stairs and bathtubs.

IMO the best thing for Democrats, and for the Biden family, would be if such a thing does occur. They would be giving martyr status to a lukewarm President who will likely have dementia within a few years. It would instantly redeem the image of the Biden family. At the same time, it would allow the US and Israel to do whatever they want to Hamas and Hezbollah.

Actually if I were Biden’s handlers I would be much more afraid of Israel doing a JFK and blaming it on Hezbollah.

Killing the president does very little damage to the US military industrial global hegemon, which is what they are opposed to, that would just make the US population hunger for blood and go after them even harder. Plus, why would you even want to kill Biden? He's like the most milquetoast person you can get, any replacements will be worse for you.

Killing this president does even less. Never forget that Bin Laden specifically instructed Al Qaeda to spare Biden, because he thought Biden so incompetent that putting him in charge would be advantageous.

What a ridiculous conspiracy theory. I should ask for a source just to expose how utterly ... wait, what the hell, that was actually a thing that happened?

B I N L A D E N

How did we all miss this? It’s been there in plain sight. It’s like he was daring us to catch him.

Also funny to look back and remember how well liked and respected Patraeus was before he threw it away to pass info to some floozy.

You're acting like these things are unconnected.

That Patraeus was well-liked and respected is Why the Clintonistas had to drum up some bullshit charges to get him out of the way.

So, I'm curious, when you say they were bullshit are you saying it didn't happen, or that it's the kind of thing that normally leads to few or no consequences?

A mix of both.

The magnitude of the offense was both vastly overstated, and the offense as it actually happened would not have ordinarily resulted in any charges.

As a strategic level commander pretty much anything Patraeus thinks or does in relation to his job is going to classified on some level. He was charged with "unauthorized removal and retention of classified material" for keeping a hand-written journal and with "unauthorized disclosure" for letting his biographer/mistress read said journal while quietly glossing over the fact that Paula Broadwell had an active security clearance at the time.

Contrast this with Huma Abedin's alleged "nothing burger", where material specifically marked as not to be removed from the SCIF was removed from the SCIF, copied without authorization from the classifying authority, and then sent unencrypted over the internet to her husband's personal laptop. Even if said husband had an active clearance (which he didn't) you kind of have to assume that foreign intel services are going to be monitoring the communications of senior cabinet officials and their staff.

while quietly glossing over the fact that Paula Broadwell had an active security clearance at the time.

Isn't access to classified information subject to both security clearance requirements AND need-to-know requirements?

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I'm really not sure what you're envisioning here. Like every Hezbollah fighter gets on a ute and tries to zerg rush Jerusalem? They'd get mown down.

And for what? Biden is incredibly replaceable. He's the embodiment of "generic Democrat". If you succeed, you're just putting Harris in charge of the US military, which she will very ungratefully point at you.

The US presidents security needs only to deal with threats from sub-state level actors, lone nutters, small terrorist cells and the like.

For everyone else, having the full wrath of the United States government mobilised against them outweighs whatever they might hope to achieve by assassinating the US president. Also it does help that Israel actually does have a military of its own and is probably quite eager to not get caught flat footed again.

The US presidents security needs only to deal with threats from sub-state level actors, lone nutters, small terrorist cells and the like.

And state actors who don't think things through. The Second Gulf War was likely largely a result of Saddam taking a shot at Bush's daddy.

What is stopping like Hamas/Iran/Al Qaeda from saying “here’s our chance” and throwing everything last thing they’ve got and going after him?

What would be the benefit?

When it comes to terror and brutality against the Israeli civilians, it can be seen a part of a wider strategic campaign that the Palestinian militant organizations have to make living in Israel more dangerous for potential olim and encourage Israelis to other countries. It's unlikely to have succeeded in this goal, though, since it has led to a fresh wave of new Zionism abroad that potentially might encourage further aliyah down the line and, if Israel gets angry enough to clear Gaza out of the militants, it will also considerably lessen that threat. Still, one might imagine someone having made the calculus and coming to see it this way.

However, murking the US president while they are visiting Israel will just make the US angry and probably lead to US troops being sent directly in, considerably decreasing your chance of survival (personally, or as an organization).

We would turn Palestine into glass if they took out our POTUS.

Civis Romanus Sum - I am a Roman citizen - and all the privileges that go with it in the empire. But at an extreme level for some barbarians killing the leader of Empire.

My guess is the Saudis, Egyptians, Iranians would all come to an agreement to take on a bunch of Palestinians probably for a few favors (Saudis to be in good grace, Egypt would expect a check, Iranians probably removal of sanctions). Then a week later Gaza does not exists.

People always write diatribes about Pax Romana not existing. But if we were angered to that extent a lot of people would be very nice to keep the system going.

What is stopping like Hamas/Iran/Al Qaeda from saying “here’s our chance” and throwing everything last thing they’ve got and going after him?

Lack of ability.

For example Hamas can make surprise border raid and occasionally massacre music festival intentionally placed next to Gaza border wall. They cannot strike randomly at top targets. Otherwise Hamas would kidnap Israeli PM, rather than random grandmothers.

Iran is more capable but they are also more rational and USA threats/implied threats are more effective.

But I assume he’s not bringing tanks, mounted guns, and all that good stuff.

Israel is not on shortage of them and have pretty good motivation to keep USA president safe.

Is it just the host county, Israel in this case, is responsible for security, and must I assume go to great lengths with a US president in town?

Yes. Also, implied threat what carriers parked next to Israel and USA in general would do.

Note that Biden visited Ukraine.

There are US troops all over the region (including two carrier groups off the coast of Israel) and an extensive CIA presence. He's not just going in there defenseless. I doubt Hamas or al-Qaeda have the capability to shoot at Air Force One, and on the ground there's going to be US and IDF troops swarming all over the place.

It would be suicidal for Iran to try killing the US President, because it would make them global pariahs, and what few allies they still have would disavow them. They'd basically be greenlighting Lindsey Graham's fever dreams of flattening Tehran.

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