naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Two days ago I gave decent odds that a majority are already dead, and the 'perfidious hospital attack killing hundreds of children' will have if anything made that estimate too optimistic.
There has been some escapees, although I won't expect many (and maybe not any) more, and there might be a couple successful hostage negotiations eventually, but it's really difficult to come up with an optimistic number. Kinetic efforts are hard in the best of circumstances and Hamas has turned preventing them into a science, there's not much Hamas can ask for that the IDF is willing to give, no way the IDF can trust Hamas to turn over hostages with a deal, and the rest of the Gazan populace doesn't really have much of a hope of changing any of those calculations.
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Notes -
Two days ago I gave decent odds that a majority are already dead, and the 'perfidious hospital attack killing hundreds of children' will have if anything made that estimate too optimistic.
There has been some escapees, although I won't expect many (and maybe not any) more, and there might be a couple successful hostage negotiations eventually, but it's really difficult to come up with an optimistic number. Kinetic efforts are hard in the best of circumstances and Hamas has turned preventing them into a science, there's not much Hamas can ask for that the IDF is willing to give, no way the IDF can trust Hamas to turn over hostages with a deal, and the rest of the Gazan populace doesn't really have much of a hope of changing any of those calculations.
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