naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances of any of the hostages coming home? I just saw this on CNN (it won't let me link the article since it's a stream of updates):
An 80-year-old Israeli-American and her 13-year-old granddaughter, who were both kidnapped by Hamas militants from their kibbutz on October 7, have been found dead, the family told CNN on Thursday.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the deaths of Carmela Dan and Noya Dan to family on Wednesday, according to Jason Greenberg, a relative who lives in Massachusetts.
“Their bodies are being returned to their families for burial at this moment,” he said.
Carmela Dan had Israeli, US and French citizenship. Her granddaughter, Noya Dan, was an Israeli citizen.
There are lots of children (young as 3), women, and elderly people. I would be shocked if more than a few of these people are alive by the end of this conflict.
As of 14 February 2024, 112 hostages had been returned alive to Israel, with 105 being released in a prisoner exchange deal, four released by Hamas unilaterally and three rescued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Twelve bodies of hostages were repatriated to Israel, with three of the hostages killed by friendly fire from the IDF[22] and the bodies of nine hostages repatriated through military operations. 49 hostages were reportedly killed on October 7 or in Hamas captivity according to Israel. According to unconfirmed Israeli intelligence, at least 20 additional hostages may be deceased, with their bodies being held captive in Gaza. As of 3 May 2024, 132 hostages remained in captivity in the Gaza Strip, 128 of whom had been abducted on 7 October 2023; the other four hostages having been captured earlier.
About 130 hostages remain unaccounted for after being kidnapped by Hamas on 7 October last year - at least 34 of them are presumed dead. According to Israel, more than 250 Israelis and foreigners were taken during the attacks. Israel gives an official figure of 134 hostages because it includes four people taken hostage in 2014 and 2015. Two of these are believed to have died.
My sad working theory has been that one reason talks were stalled was that a deal would force Hamas to reveal that most of the hostages were either dead or pregnant. Now this: AFAIK, there are still ca 125 hostages in Gaza, and Hamas can't produce 33 who are still alive?
So more than I feared, less than I hoped, and it's become increasingly possible to say publicly among mainstream sources that it's probably not gonna look better.
A noticing things side note (another post like this, for me).
Mia Shem pleaded for her release in the first hostage video released by Hamas's armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades
Noticing this, and the fact she's hot, I immediately fired up youtube to see what the hostage video. But I couldn't find a single untainted pure source. All early results give mainstream news organizations that start with some jackass news anchor ready to tell me what to think. Every single one. I then go to twitter and search "Mia Shem video" and get exactly what I want with no difficulty.
I'm not sure I understand the implications of this or what to make of it. I've long entertained the idea that basically all mainstream media is biased and trash. Especially post 2016 where Trump derangement syndrome seemed to drive even respectable outfits off the deep end. I don't even watch or read the news anymore. Has anyone else noticed how news media won't give straight information even when it would be helpful in lieu of writing things out long form with possible interpretation? E.g. if they are quoting "someone said something" they won't just straight link or archive the direct twitter post but describe it, possibly piecemeal. Nor will they use graphs or direct quote stats with the possible exception of pew polls. I have, and it both annoys and weirds me out. But this is extra and really got my nogging jogging. What sort of institutional values does this indicate where they absolutely refuse to just report and let me decide? Why is Twitter and telegram so superior?
Other side note. For a long time I wasn't even sure males had been kidnapped. Everyone just wanted to talk about Shani Louk. Eventually I looked it up and found some indication that they had. Looking at a list there does seem bias towards women (wonder why), but still the men are there. I think the total domination of hot women in the dialog of hostages says something. Dontcha think?
The YouTube thing has been going on for a long time. If you want to find primary sources for anything you have to use twitter. Telegram suffers from not being searchable (but also way less censored).
Also is there something wrong with me? I don’t find any of the prominently displayed female hostages that hot
The odds were always low because of the war aims. The sheer number of hostages means that any ground operation would be all but impossible. Moreover, a series of Israeli ministers have communicated very clearly to the public that hostages are of a secondary importance.
Two days ago I gave decent odds that a majority are already dead, and the 'perfidious hospital attack killing hundreds of children' will have if anything made that estimate too optimistic.
There has been some escapees, although I won't expect many (and maybe not any) more, and there might be a couple successful hostage negotiations eventually, but it's really difficult to come up with an optimistic number. Kinetic efforts are hard in the best of circumstances and Hamas has turned preventing them into a science, there's not much Hamas can ask for that the IDF is willing to give, no way the IDF can trust Hamas to turn over hostages with a deal, and the rest of the Gazan populace doesn't really have much of a hope of changing any of those calculations.
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Notes -
What are the chances of any of the hostages coming home? I just saw this on CNN (it won't let me link the article since it's a stream of updates):
Here is a list of the hostages from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011
There are lots of children (young as 3), women, and elderly people. I would be shocked if more than a few of these people are alive by the end of this conflict.
Six months update:
So more than I feared, less than I hoped, and it's become increasingly possible to say publicly among mainstream sources that it's probably not gonna look better.
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A noticing things side note (another post like this, for me).
Noticing this, and the fact she's hot, I immediately fired up youtube to see what the hostage video. But I couldn't find a single untainted pure source. All early results give mainstream news organizations that start with some jackass news anchor ready to tell me what to think. Every single one. I then go to twitter and search "Mia Shem video" and get exactly what I want with no difficulty.
I'm not sure I understand the implications of this or what to make of it. I've long entertained the idea that basically all mainstream media is biased and trash. Especially post 2016 where Trump derangement syndrome seemed to drive even respectable outfits off the deep end. I don't even watch or read the news anymore. Has anyone else noticed how news media won't give straight information even when it would be helpful in lieu of writing things out long form with possible interpretation? E.g. if they are quoting "someone said something" they won't just straight link or archive the direct twitter post but describe it, possibly piecemeal. Nor will they use graphs or direct quote stats with the possible exception of pew polls. I have, and it both annoys and weirds me out. But this is extra and really got my nogging jogging. What sort of institutional values does this indicate where they absolutely refuse to just report and let me decide? Why is Twitter and telegram so superior?
Other side note. For a long time I wasn't even sure males had been kidnapped. Everyone just wanted to talk about Shani Louk. Eventually I looked it up and found some indication that they had. Looking at a list there does seem bias towards women (wonder why), but still the men are there. I think the total domination of hot women in the dialog of hostages says something. Dontcha think?
The YouTube thing has been going on for a long time. If you want to find primary sources for anything you have to use twitter. Telegram suffers from not being searchable (but also way less censored).
Also is there something wrong with me? I don’t find any of the prominently displayed female hostages that hot
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
The odds were always low because of the war aims. The sheer number of hostages means that any ground operation would be all but impossible. Moreover, a series of Israeli ministers have communicated very clearly to the public that hostages are of a secondary importance.
More options
Context Copy link
Two days ago I gave decent odds that a majority are already dead, and the 'perfidious hospital attack killing hundreds of children' will have if anything made that estimate too optimistic.
There has been some escapees, although I won't expect many (and maybe not any) more, and there might be a couple successful hostage negotiations eventually, but it's really difficult to come up with an optimistic number. Kinetic efforts are hard in the best of circumstances and Hamas has turned preventing them into a science, there's not much Hamas can ask for that the IDF is willing to give, no way the IDF can trust Hamas to turn over hostages with a deal, and the rest of the Gazan populace doesn't really have much of a hope of changing any of those calculations.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link