naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
Judging inflation by multiples of the target is goofy since the target is so low in numerical terms. E.g. one could say that in May of 2020 during Trump's tenure that inflation of 0.12% was off the mark by a factor of over 16x. That sounds disastrous and is technically true, but paints an obviously biased picture. A current inflation rate of 3.7 is basically fine since the long term trend has been downward given interest rates.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
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Notes -
Re economy
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Judging inflation by multiples of the target is goofy since the target is so low in numerical terms. E.g. one could say that in May of 2020 during Trump's tenure that inflation of 0.12% was off the mark by a factor of over 16x. That sounds disastrous and is technically true, but paints an obviously biased picture. A current inflation rate of 3.7 is basically fine since the long term trend has been downward given interest rates.
US wage growth is indeed slowing, but that's just because it was at historical highs for the first half of Biden's tenure. The 3 month moving average of wage increases is still higher today than at any point during Trump's tenure.
Citation needed. There are critiques of headline unemployment numbers like participation rate and marginal attachment rate, but both of those are steady or improving.
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