naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
The US is about to get dragged into some middle eastern conflicts by Israel.
Very unlikely. Biden got us out of Afghanistan which is something Bush, Obama, and Trump all should have done but failed to do. He also ensured no American troops got involved in Ukraine. It's very unlikely that he'll decide to go on a rampage in the Middle East.
our economy is hanging on by a thread
It's pretty much the strongest it's ever been. Unemployment is <4%. Stock markets are near all time highs. There's inflation, but that's cooled off significantly to being basically on-target.
our weapon and oil stockpiles are depleted
Not even close. Some factors (like artillery) that the US doesn't use much of are pretty low, but new shells are always being created. For most other things the US is the same as always since we're not sending them anywhere.
The SPR has little to do with domestic consumption of oil.
our reputation is dwindling
The opposite is true. It took a big hit after Iraq, then another moderate hit during Trump, but Biden + Ukraine have gone a ways to repairing it. The chorus of "America is an evil empire" is slowly being drowned out by "America isn't great but the alternative is so much worse".
our allies are weak or disappearing
Both Germany and Japan are rearming. Europe is weaker relatively speaking compared to history since it's been basically just living off its inheritance, but it still has a significant economic footprint.
Nothing except China's actions or a possible civil conflict in the USA would do much to change these things. Certainly not Israel, Palestine, or Iran.
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
Judging inflation by multiples of the target is goofy since the target is so low in numerical terms. E.g. one could say that in May of 2020 during Trump's tenure that inflation of 0.12% was off the mark by a factor of over 16x. That sounds disastrous and is technically true, but paints an obviously biased picture. A current inflation rate of 3.7 is basically fine since the long term trend has been downward given interest rates.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
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Notes -
Very unlikely. Biden got us out of Afghanistan which is something Bush, Obama, and Trump all should have done but failed to do. He also ensured no American troops got involved in Ukraine. It's very unlikely that he'll decide to go on a rampage in the Middle East.
It's pretty much the strongest it's ever been. Unemployment is <4%. Stock markets are near all time highs. There's inflation, but that's cooled off significantly to being basically on-target.
Not even close. Some factors (like artillery) that the US doesn't use much of are pretty low, but new shells are always being created. For most other things the US is the same as always since we're not sending them anywhere.
The SPR has little to do with domestic consumption of oil.
The opposite is true. It took a big hit after Iraq, then another moderate hit during Trump, but Biden + Ukraine have gone a ways to repairing it. The chorus of "America is an evil empire" is slowly being drowned out by "America isn't great but the alternative is so much worse".
Both Germany and Japan are rearming. Europe is weaker relatively speaking compared to history since it's been basically just living off its inheritance, but it still has a significant economic footprint.
Nothing except China's actions or a possible civil conflict in the USA would do much to change these things. Certainly not Israel, Palestine, or Iran.
Re economy
Inflation is almost 4%. That’s double target and btw that’s 4% on a hit elevated base.
American consumer appears to be at a breaking point (as their credit is drying up). They decrease spending and earnings tumble. Earnings tumble and stocks tumble.
The employment numbers are heavily massaged. the Philly Fed had a piece in this that the numbers aren’t consistent. MoM there have been large unlikely beats (eg six sigma). That doesn’t happen naturally. It’s rigged via adjustments.
Judging inflation by multiples of the target is goofy since the target is so low in numerical terms. E.g. one could say that in May of 2020 during Trump's tenure that inflation of 0.12% was off the mark by a factor of over 16x. That sounds disastrous and is technically true, but paints an obviously biased picture. A current inflation rate of 3.7 is basically fine since the long term trend has been downward given interest rates.
US wage growth is indeed slowing, but that's just because it was at historical highs for the first half of Biden's tenure. The 3 month moving average of wage increases is still higher today than at any point during Trump's tenure.
Citation needed. There are critiques of headline unemployment numbers like participation rate and marginal attachment rate, but both of those are steady or improving.
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