naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
There are logistical components to this, though. If the gloves fully come off and Israel is in an existential war for survival, they have a lot of advanced weaponry and a large standing army. Most Arab armies are not particularly competent - the skilled fighting forces would be some units of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, possibly some of the IRGC and Hamas, possibly Iraqi Shia militias (although they’d have to keep many forces at home), maybe some Jordanians although my guess is they’d limit their involvement. I doubt Turkey would join a war on Israel because it would distract from the ongoing situation with the Kurds and would involve fighting with Iranians, although I suppose it’s possible. The Egyptian army isn’t built for that kind of war, and as the backbone of Sisi’s power it’s hard to see him committing to an overseas engagement, especially in defense of Hamas which is of course a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. The Saudis are busy in Yemen and recent peace talks are floundering.
Israel isn’t guaranteed to win against the above by any means, but it’s not certain defeat either.
The Saudis and those countries also clearly want to be allies with the Israeli and its a game of dealing with some Jewish hate in Islam and their PMC viewing Israel as a very useful ally.
To me what you described seems like a multi-proxy, insurgency war within or near to the borders of Israel which is very sobering to think about. You're right though perhaps I am being too much of a doomer in regards to Israel's ability to fight this conflict, even a regional one. I think however, the idea or era of Zionism is over. As in, Israel has used all of it's grace and the global community might even make Israel give up concessions for a lasting peace.
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Notes -
There are logistical components to this, though. If the gloves fully come off and Israel is in an existential war for survival, they have a lot of advanced weaponry and a large standing army. Most Arab armies are not particularly competent - the skilled fighting forces would be some units of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, possibly some of the IRGC and Hamas, possibly Iraqi Shia militias (although they’d have to keep many forces at home), maybe some Jordanians although my guess is they’d limit their involvement. I doubt Turkey would join a war on Israel because it would distract from the ongoing situation with the Kurds and would involve fighting with Iranians, although I suppose it’s possible. The Egyptian army isn’t built for that kind of war, and as the backbone of Sisi’s power it’s hard to see him committing to an overseas engagement, especially in defense of Hamas which is of course a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. The Saudis are busy in Yemen and recent peace talks are floundering.
Israel isn’t guaranteed to win against the above by any means, but it’s not certain defeat either.
The Saudis and those countries also clearly want to be allies with the Israeli and its a game of dealing with some Jewish hate in Islam and their PMC viewing Israel as a very useful ally.
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To me what you described seems like a multi-proxy, insurgency war within or near to the borders of Israel which is very sobering to think about. You're right though perhaps I am being too much of a doomer in regards to Israel's ability to fight this conflict, even a regional one. I think however, the idea or era of Zionism is over. As in, Israel has used all of it's grace and the global community might even make Israel give up concessions for a lasting peace.
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