naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
A possibly-intercepted SCUD crashing into a building? I could see that being on the low end, and it still inflicted ~130 casualties. If the hospital were significantly more densely populated than a 100-man barracks and mess hall, maybe the figures make more sense.
I’m seeing a 600kg payload for a SCUD and no idea of what weapons the IDF is deploying.
I'm not sure if the Iron Dome interceptor -- and the bright rocket flare is definitely an interceptor -- that's the focus of the first fifteen seconds of these videos is related, or just what distracted the cameramen before a separate rocket launched into the disaster.
EDIT: strike that, I'm not convinced the prolonged rocket flare and airborne detonation is proof it was an interceptor. Hassams don't act like that, even during the ascent phase, but some of the longer-range rockets might./EDIT
I don't do rocket science, but in the general aviation world the rule of thumb for freefall is 3-10 seconds per 1000 foot drop, and napkin math for a powered-but-sub-mach rocket gives a limit of almost a second per 1000 foot distance. It's possible that the Iron Dome interceptor EDIT: or an internal failure /EDIT damaged a guidance surface without breaking up the rocket's motor or general structure, and then you get close to normal (or even higher) speed but a wildly wrong direction. That's... not impossible, although I'd be weirded out by the multiple detonations, but there's a lot of OSI people giving it credence so what do I know.
IF the IDF is telling the truth, which isn't a given, it's possible that the second flash of light while the cameramen are looking upwards at the interceptor was a separate launch, which misfired into far too shallow an angle or with partial motor failures, and the near-instant impact is the rocket working up to speed and hitting the ground. But they're really too close in time for the claimed rocket trajectory. Maybe a motor failure and detonation in mid-air for the first flash shortly after launch, then the payload impacted on a ballistic trajectory?
Dunno. It's pretty far outside of my field of focus.
EDIT: and to be clear, I don’t think Hamas has or even wants SCUDs specifically; they’re just about similar in yield to the upper bound of known rockets in the Strip, which we have a known mass casualty incident.
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Notes -
A possibly-intercepted SCUD crashing into a building? I could see that being on the low end, and it still inflicted ~130 casualties. If the hospital were significantly more densely populated than a 100-man barracks and mess hall, maybe the figures make more sense.
I’m seeing a 600kg payload for a SCUD and no idea of what weapons the IDF is deploying.
I'm not sure if the Iron Dome interceptor -- and the bright rocket flare is definitely an interceptor -- that's the focus of the first fifteen seconds of these videos is related, or just what distracted the cameramen before a separate rocket launched into the disaster.EDIT: strike that, I'm not convinced the prolonged rocket flare and airborne detonation is proof it was an interceptor. Hassams don't act like that, even during the ascent phase, but some of the longer-range rockets might./EDIT
I don't do rocket science, but in the general aviation world the rule of thumb for freefall is 3-10 seconds per 1000 foot drop, and napkin math for a powered-but-sub-mach rocket gives a limit of almost a second per 1000 foot distance. It's possible that the Iron Dome interceptor EDIT: or an internal failure /EDIT damaged a guidance surface without breaking up the rocket's motor or general structure, and then you get close to normal (or even higher) speed but a wildly wrong direction. That's... not impossible, although I'd be weirded out by the multiple detonations, but there's a lot of OSI people giving it credence so what do I know.
IF the IDF is telling the truth, which isn't a given, it's possible that the second flash of light while the cameramen are looking upwards at the interceptor was a separate launch, which misfired into far too shallow an angle or with partial motor failures, and the near-instant impact is the rocket working up to speed and hitting the ground. But they're really too close in time for the claimed rocket trajectory. Maybe a motor failure and detonation in mid-air for the first flash shortly after launch, then the payload impacted on a ballistic trajectory?
Dunno. It's pretty far outside of my field of focus.
EDIT: and to be clear, I don’t think Hamas has or even wants SCUDs specifically; they’re just about similar in yield to the upper bound of known rockets in the Strip, which we have a known mass casualty incident.
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