naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the odds that Israel hit it, but it was an accident?
I concur that intentionally leveling a hospital is just about the worst possible PR. And also that nothing about the Israeli strategy has suggested that they would think it a smart move. But here we are. I’m going to place my bets on a misfire (excusable) or a mistaken target (not so much).
I think that it's possible Hamas was launching rockets near the hospital and the IDF Air Force hit it after seeing a rocket launch from that location, not realizing its a hospital, or realizing too late.
If you look at the video of the one explosion close up, its way larger than any rocket we've seen Hamas launch in this conflict. Pretty clear its a JDAM IMO. Takes a lot of hoop jumping to conclude otherwise.
There's allegedly been at least a couple Fajar-5s launched already, which at 175-200kg payload could pretty easily do that, and the R160s are bigger. And there's supposedly texts from PIJ committing to the use of one just before this launch. The explosion isn't really what's weird, so much as the extremely high casualty numbers, but a bomb in the wrong enough place can do that.
Separately, there's no way the IDF was unaware there was a hospital here. It's a big hospital, and it's been there for freaking ever. If the IDF is firing off JDAMs at hotspots without crosschecking a zone map, that's just culpability with extra steps. Maybe some sort of technical error with the JDAM guidance system, but this sorta distance is margin-of-WWII-era aiming tech.
I saw a video from a couple days ago, which I am too lazy to lookup, in which a plane - or drone - targeted and bombed a source from a rocket launch from overhead. The scenario I am picturing is something like that, a quick trigger pull on a rocket launch source in the middle of the night with lights off or something. It's plausible that a shot from the hip like that could have been done. I imagine the operators and pilots are quite trigger happy at the moment over Gaza. Maybe they don't even have to ask a command chain for a decision like that.
Seems to be videos now or it being a Hamas misfire. That seems far more likely since their qassams are pieces improvised water pipes turned into rockets.
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
Rumors on Twitter are that it was a test of a special longer range missile that exploded the fuel all at once. Not saying they’re necessarily true, but that could explain it if so.
Everyone on twitter does 10 different routines of 5 dimensional hyperspace mental gymnastics at the same time. That a bunch of team A are doing it doesn't really prove anything, because teams B-Z also are. Better to focus on good arguments.
Maybe, I'm skeptical by nature especially from a conflict and alleged atrocity such as this. The photos to me could also fit the signature of an Air Burst JDAM. If you had a target - or group of targets - in an open area like a parking lot, using an air burst munition makes the most sense and causes the most damage. However I am not an expert.
Maybe I'm skeptical or biased but I still don't buy it. Which begs the question if these photos sway the Arab powers and their people one way or the other.
"JDAM" is a really broad category (if you really want to be technical, it's the guidance kit rather than the weapon system), but at least common ones are 200 lbs to 1000 lbs of high explosive. That's... really not consistent with what we're seeing here, even in airburst configuration, nor was the videos.
Similarly, the impact pattern just isn't anything like you'd expect from an airburst; things are pushed away from the impact site, not crumpling from a big overpressure wave, not just in the cars immediately around the impact site but also nearby roof tiles or building windows.
Looks to me like a small "low explosive" explosion maybe 20-50 feet above the parking lot (accounting for the roof damage and damage to cars directly below) spreading burning material over a somewhat wider area. No significant high explosive, or all the car windows and building windows would have been broken.
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Notes -
What are the odds that Israel hit it, but it was an accident?
I concur that intentionally leveling a hospital is just about the worst possible PR. And also that nothing about the Israeli strategy has suggested that they would think it a smart move. But here we are. I’m going to place my bets on a misfire (excusable) or a mistaken target (not so much).
I think that it's possible Hamas was launching rockets near the hospital and the IDF Air Force hit it after seeing a rocket launch from that location, not realizing its a hospital, or realizing too late.
If you look at the video of the one explosion close up, its way larger than any rocket we've seen Hamas launch in this conflict. Pretty clear its a JDAM IMO. Takes a lot of hoop jumping to conclude otherwise.
There's allegedly been at least a couple Fajar-5s launched already, which at 175-200kg payload could pretty easily do that, and the R160s are bigger. And there's supposedly texts from PIJ committing to the use of one just before this launch. The explosion isn't really what's weird, so much as the extremely high casualty numbers, but a bomb in the wrong enough place can do that.
Separately, there's no way the IDF was unaware there was a hospital here. It's a big hospital, and it's been there for freaking ever. If the IDF is firing off JDAMs at hotspots without crosschecking a zone map, that's just culpability with extra steps. Maybe some sort of technical error with the JDAM guidance system, but this sorta distance is margin-of-WWII-era aiming tech.
I saw a video from a couple days ago, which I am too lazy to lookup, in which a plane - or drone - targeted and bombed a source from a rocket launch from overhead. The scenario I am picturing is something like that, a quick trigger pull on a rocket launch source in the middle of the night with lights off or something. It's plausible that a shot from the hip like that could have been done. I imagine the operators and pilots are quite trigger happy at the moment over Gaza. Maybe they don't even have to ask a command chain for a decision like that.
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Seems to be videos now or it being a Hamas misfire. That seems far more likely since their qassams are pieces improvised water pipes turned into rockets.
Are those missiles large enough to do this kind of damage?
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
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Rumors on Twitter are that it was a test of a special longer range missile that exploded the fuel all at once. Not saying they’re necessarily true, but that could explain it if so.
Lots of hoop jumping from Zionists on twitter right now.
Not a useful contribution, less of this please.
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Everyone on twitter does 10 different routines of 5 dimensional hyperspace mental gymnastics at the same time. That a bunch of team A are doing it doesn't really prove anything, because teams B-Z also are. Better to focus on good arguments.
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Given the daytime photos released, it seems like they were jumping through the correct hoops.
Maybe, I'm skeptical by nature especially from a conflict and alleged atrocity such as this. The photos to me could also fit the signature of an Air Burst JDAM. If you had a target - or group of targets - in an open area like a parking lot, using an air burst munition makes the most sense and causes the most damage. However I am not an expert.
Maybe I'm skeptical or biased but I still don't buy it. Which begs the question if these photos sway the Arab powers and their people one way or the other.
"JDAM" is a really broad category (if you really want to be technical, it's the guidance kit rather than the weapon system), but at least common ones are 200 lbs to 1000 lbs of high explosive. That's... really not consistent with what we're seeing here, even in airburst configuration, nor was the videos.
Similarly, the impact pattern just isn't anything like you'd expect from an airburst; things are pushed away from the impact site, not crumpling from a big overpressure wave, not just in the cars immediately around the impact site but also nearby roof tiles or building windows.
Looks to me like a small "low explosive" explosion maybe 20-50 feet above the parking lot (accounting for the roof damage and damage to cars directly below) spreading burning material over a somewhat wider area. No significant high explosive, or all the car windows and building windows would have been broken.
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