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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29411 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #1

This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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The latter is... extremely unlikely.

Prior to February 2022 i may have agreed but I nolonger share your optomism in this regard. The Balkans are right there.

The scenario where I can maybe see Putin being emboldened to do something like that is

  • Russia keeps gearing up more and more into a total war footing as the war drags on.
  • Ukraine's manpower gets ground down and western support doesn't keep pace with Russian escalation
  • Eventually the lines get broken and Russia storms through, capturing the western parts of Ukraine relatively quickly
  • High on victory and with a big war machine already running, Putin decides he can totally take the Baltics before America can really do anything about it and goes for it.

Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.

Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.

Agreed, likewise the inverse. Ukraine gains a decisive win on the southern front and decides that they're going to try and retake the Crimea. Russia nukes Kherson, Odessa, Melitopol, and Chaban to stave off a total collapse, and shit hits the fan.

Again, Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.

Chaban

What?

Not the one in the north, the one sitting on the narrow strip connecting Crimea to the mainland.

There are two narrow strips that do that, one has Armyansk (and Perekop), the other has Chongar/Chonhar.

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