naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
There seems to be a lack of real understanding of what Iran getting ‘directly involved’ looks like. Israel doesn’t have the capacity to fight a conventional war with Iran, it’s possible they could nuke Tehran in a Samson Option scenario but other than that they can’t wage war with Iran for a huge number of logistical reasons. Iran is very unlikely, too, to send conventional forces to Israel, supply routes are questionable and if they attempted it it’s likely the US would strike them as they crossed through Iraq. If Hamas gets pounded to dust the survivors can still receive support from Iran, Hezbollah can certainly still receive support from Iran and so on, its not game over and there’s no need for suicidal direct intervention, which even in a best case scenario likely results in a US strike on Tehran that kills a lot of senior leadership and ends the relatively comfortable life many of the leadership live.
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Notes -
There seems to be a lack of real understanding of what Iran getting ‘directly involved’ looks like. Israel doesn’t have the capacity to fight a conventional war with Iran, it’s possible they could nuke Tehran in a Samson Option scenario but other than that they can’t wage war with Iran for a huge number of logistical reasons. Iran is very unlikely, too, to send conventional forces to Israel, supply routes are questionable and if they attempted it it’s likely the US would strike them as they crossed through Iraq. If Hamas gets pounded to dust the survivors can still receive support from Iran, Hezbollah can certainly still receive support from Iran and so on, its not game over and there’s no need for suicidal direct intervention, which even in a best case scenario likely results in a US strike on Tehran that kills a lot of senior leadership and ends the relatively comfortable life many of the leadership live.
I agree an intervention of Iran would at least start with Hezbollah as proxy.
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