naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
We would probably have an official recession because productivity fell leading to lower gdp but I don’t think War with China would feel like a real recession. Wal-Mart junk shelves would be empty. But the financial flow of dollar to China for crap would stop so it would actually improve the US balance sheet. And jobs would be plentiful. It’s just people wouldn’t be getting their Amazon packages.
How many supply chains depend on Chinese parts at this point? If you can't buy a $25 drill/driver because Harbor Freight stops getting shipments of them from China, that's fine; the $50 drill is worth it anyway. If you can't buy a $25K car or get a job assembling $25K cars because the assembly lines got throttled down while they figured out how to re-source a bunch of little @$25 parts shipped from China, that could be a giant pain.
Don’t disagree it would be bumpy. A lot of people would need to innovate. Germany would likely boom as would a bunch of Europe which has a lot of machine part suppliers.
We would have shortages for a time. A lot like COVID while we figure shit out.
But it wouldn’t be doomerism. China I believe would take it harder unless their navy is capable of operating far from their shores as they wouldn’t have enough energy or raw materials.
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Notes -
We would probably have an official recession because productivity fell leading to lower gdp but I don’t think War with China would feel like a real recession. Wal-Mart junk shelves would be empty. But the financial flow of dollar to China for crap would stop so it would actually improve the US balance sheet. And jobs would be plentiful. It’s just people wouldn’t be getting their Amazon packages.
How many supply chains depend on Chinese parts at this point? If you can't buy a $25 drill/driver because Harbor Freight stops getting shipments of them from China, that's fine; the $50 drill is worth it anyway. If you can't buy a $25K car or get a job assembling $25K cars because the assembly lines got throttled down while they figured out how to re-source a bunch of little @$25 parts shipped from China, that could be a giant pain.
Don’t disagree it would be bumpy. A lot of people would need to innovate. Germany would likely boom as would a bunch of Europe which has a lot of machine part suppliers.
We would have shortages for a time. A lot like COVID while we figure shit out.
But it wouldn’t be doomerism. China I believe would take it harder unless their navy is capable of operating far from their shores as they wouldn’t have enough energy or raw materials.
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